tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65335918393343399492023-11-15T22:01:58.455+05:30On the road to LibertyCommentaries on current affairs by Barun S Mitra.Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.comBlogger131125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-81168263682304177922013-11-05T00:17:00.000+05:302013-11-05T08:30:19.475+05:30Political iconography: Significance of Sardar Patel in India Today<i>Narendra Modi is building the world's tallest statue, in memory of Sardar Patel, in the Narmada district, of Gujarat? <span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Why does Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, and the prime</span></i><br />
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><i>ministerial candidate of the BJP in the forthcoming general election in 2014, need to lay a claim over political legacy of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, independent India's first home minister, who died in 1950. Is it an attempt to saffronise Patel, the nationalist icon who was opposed to religious and communal politics? Or is it a sign of desaffronisation of Modi, in his attempt to shed his own communal image? These are some of the questions which I explore in the following article. </i></span><div>
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Every political ideology or movement needs a face or an icon, symbolising the essence of the campaign to the public. To be effective, such a political icon needs to be seen as bipartisan, something which the wider sections of the population, beyond the party faithful may be able to related to easily.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">With the elevation of Narendra Modi as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate in the 2014 general election, Modi is now the obvious face of the campaign. But Modi is a highly polarising personality, who attracts acolytes and critics in equal measure. Therefore Modi's campaign needed a bipartisan figure as its icon.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">By claiming Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel as the icon of BJP in the current political campaign, Modi is making a distinct effort to use the bipartisan appeal of Patel, to diffuse his own partisan image.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Will Modi succeed in desaffronise himself, riding on the image of Sardar Patel? Or Will he try to saffronise the Sardar, and succeed in claiming the first nationalist icon for the BJP?</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s8" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); font-weight: bold;">Political icons</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span class="s10">In the 2009 general election, the BJP had tried to project L. K. Advani as a decisive leader, </span><span class="s12" style="font-style: italic;">"Louha Purush"</span><span class="s10"> or the 'Iron Man', in the mould of Sardar Patel. The campaign did not succeed. So now Modi as the head of BJP's campaign in 2014, is trying to claim for itself not just the lexicon, but the icon itself, Sardar Patel.</span></span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">It is really interesting that, today the Congress party, which espouses inclusive governance, have over the decades increasingly excluded many of its own nationalist icons, focusing primarily on the Nehru-Gandhi family. And now that the party is feeling increasingly marginalised, it is trying to reclaim some of the political icons it had willfully discarded. But as the 2014 campaign unfolds, Congress seems unsure whether to reclaim some of the political legacy, or stay loyal to its first family.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Other political parties have their icons, too. BSP has adopted Ambedkar. The remnants of Indian socialists have Lohia. The communists have Marx and Lenin. The Naxalites have Mao. The DMK has Periyar and ADMK has in addition MGR in Tamil Nadu. TDP has NTR in Andhra Pradesh. Shiv Sena has Shivaji in Maharashtra. Akalis have the Gurus in Punjab. Mamata routinely idolises Tagore, Vivekananda, Subhas Bose and others from the Bengali pantheon, although she is her own best motif.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">But the BJP-RSS combine with a national political ambition has no icon with pan-India appeal. Most Indians have not heard of Hegedewar the founder of RSS. Dr Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, the founder of Jan Sangh, the precursor of BJP, may be better known, but does not have much popular appeal. Deen Dayal Upadhayay, who laid the intellectual and organisational foundation of Jan Sangh, and conceptualised integral humanism, as an alternative political ideology, to western theories of capitalism and communism, is today largely unknown. And A.B. Vajpayee, the prime minister of the BJP led NDA government between 1998 and 2004, is too recent to become an icon. Also, Vajpayee's differences with Modi on the 2002 riots in Gujarat is too fresh in public mind to allow Modi to claim him.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);"><span class="s10">So it is interesting that Modi is trying to claim Sardar Patel, who was from Gujarat, although Patel had banned the RSS in the aftermath of Mahatma Gandhi's assassination. Patel was foremost among Indian nationalist, and had nothing to do with Hindu nationalism, the brand which Modi and his party tries to propagate. Patel said about the RSS: "</span><span class="s13" style="font-style: italic;">The speeches of the Sangh leaders are poisonous. It is as a result of this venom that Mahatma Gandhi has been assassinated</span><span class="s10">."</span></span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s8" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); font-weight: bold;">Sardar Patel and Politics</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Modi is attempting to recreate the political image of Patel, according to his own electoral need. Patel had gradually faded from the contemporary Indian political lexicon, and yet has an element of mythology surrounding him for his effort to unite the 500 odd princely states that constituted British India, following Independence from colonial rule. Therefore Modi believes it may be relatively easy to resurrect Patel as a symbol of united India.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">It is a small matter of history that in Patel's vision of India, he considered both Hindu and Muslim identity based communal nationalism posing a fundamental threat to Akhand Bharat, the united India.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">In order to project Patel, Modi feels necessary to speculate on the direction India may have taken had Patel been the Prime Minister at Independence in 1947. But Patel was a life long member of the Congress, working closely with prime minister Nehru, who was many years younger to him.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s8" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); font-weight: bold;">Mobilising the faithfuls</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Political icons are not mere statues cast in iron. They have a practical purpose. One is to project a message or idea that may appeal to a broad cross-section of the people. But in an election campaign, it is critical to be able to turn that appeal in to votes, as well. This requires political mobilisation.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Advani's rath-yatra in the late 1980s, as part of the campaign to build a Ram Temple, at the alleged site of Ram's birth in Ayodhya, was more than just an effort to build awareness of the idea of Ram or the temple. It was a very astute move to mobilise a large section of Indian society towards the idea of Hindu Nationalism. The campaign stood out in contrast to apologists for secularism, who were portrayed as playing vote bank politics and practicing a policy of minority appeasement.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Even while disagreeing with the goals and narratives of the Ram Temple campaign, one can hardly deny that this was one of the most successful political mobilisation at the grassroots in modern Indian history. The bricks being mobilised from thousands of villages across the country to build the temple, demonstrated that it had stuck a chord among a large segment of the population. It had catapulted BJP from its nadir in the 1984 general election, to the doorsteps of political power in Delhi by the mid-1990s.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s8" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); font-weight: bold;">Political base</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Advani and Modi may have their political differences, but their political strategies are strikingly similar. There seems to be a clear political strategy underlying the desire to build the world's tallest statue of unity, to Sardar Patel, in the Narmada district of Gujarat, near the Sardar Sarovar dam, at a cost of Rs 2500 crore.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Apart from claiming the political legacy of Patel, the building of the statue provides a practical tool for mobilising people, and try to translate the general political appeal, in to votes for the BJP. Like the bricks for Ram Temple, this time Modi is appealing to farmers to donate their redundant farm equipment, so that the metal could be recyled to build the statue. Rural India is critical in BJP electoral calculus.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The BJP's political rise in the 1990s came due to wholesome support from urban India, and its loss in 2004 and 2009, is also a reflection of the urban voters moving away from the BJP. This time, with a strong sense of anti-incumbency towards the Congress led UPA government, it is expected that a large section of urban voters may return to BJP and its allies.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">At the national level, there is a general consensus among political analysts on the depth of disillusionment towards the Congress led UPA government across India. However, given the scale of expenditures and range of projects aimed at the rural population, undertaken by the UPA in the past decade, there are doubts regarding the scope of anti-incumbency sentiments across the country side.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">But rural votes have been a challenge for the BJP for a long time. Even in Gujarat, in the 2012 assembly election, when Modi won his third assembly election, BJP swept the urban and semi urban seats, but Modi could only win half of the rural constituencies. Clearly, the BJP needed a political strategy to effectively mobilise people and opinion in rural India. The appeal to farmers to share their spare equipments for the purpose of building the statue of Patel, is aimed at doing that. Also, perhaps in not too a small measure, Modi may also be trying to assuage the feelings of the Patel community in Gujarat, many of may still have misgivings about his treatment of leaders from their community.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Despite mobilising on the issue of Ram Temple, and moving the bricks from villages, the construction of the temple in Ayodhya, is quite far from being realised, given the political and legal opposition. In contrast, the statue of Patel in that sense is a much more feasible venture. There is no major opposition expected from any significant section of society, and so it is a statue that can actually be built.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s8" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); font-weight: bold;">Politics of polarisation</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">While the BJP may be averse to Gandhi, the Mahatma, they have no hesitation in taking a lesson from the greatest political mobiliser the world has ever seen. The key to Gandhi's strategy for political mobilisation was to pick a simple idea which people can relate, and then provide a way by which people can actually participate in a concrete way, and thereby feel politically empowered.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Idea can touch the intellect, but the capacity to act can help mobilise the heart. This is how Gandhi transformed the Congress from an elite group of Indians, and built the mass support for India's political emancipation.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">While mobilisation on the Ram temple was quite a success, it has continued to be extremely divisive even today. The Ram Temple campaign had peaked almost twenty years ago. While it did make the BJP in to a national political force, by that same token, it showed the political limitation of such a polarising political strategy. At its peak, the BJP had so far been able to secure only about 25% of the votes nationally, and therefore needed political allies in order to form national government.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Sardar Patel is not seen as divisive by most Indians today. Despite attempts to reinterpret Sardar Patel's political legacy, saffronisation of Patel may not succeed. For one reason, Patel is being resurrected by the BJP, in the hope benefiting from the Sardar's impeccable nationalist credentials and bi-partisan appeal. Saffronising Patel, would only polarise opinion, and defeat the very purpose of adopting him. Secondly, a polarising political strategy may be useful in mobilising the faithfuls, but in a country as diverse as India, this inevitably limits appeal of the sectarian idea beyond faithfuls, and limits the electoral dividend.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">In 2009, the BJP's vote share had fallen to about 18%, nationally. If it is to have a realistic prospect of forming the next government in 2014, it needs to attract 28-30% of the votes, if successful, this may double its seats in Lok Sabha, to over 200.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s8" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); font-weight: bold;">The questions that remain</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Sardar Patel's statue of unity is being billed as the tallest statue in the world, at 182 meters, nearly double the height of the Statue of Liberty, in the United States. That is a billing that is likely to be overcome somewhere in the world, sooner than later. Today, the iron lady in New York is not known for her height or age, but stands as a symbol of freedom across the world. Unfortunately, in India, we are prone to creating idols and statues, while preferring to argue and even fight over the inanimate form, rather than debate the substance that gave them meaning. Over time complex rites and rituals become dominant, and seem to clog the capacity to even think about the possible meaning? Would the statue of Patel suffer the same ignominy?</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Modi's claim on Sardar Patel raises a number of interesting political questions. Is Modi trying to send a secular message to the public, and trying to distance himself from the RSS, the very forces that paved his rise as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate? Or is Modi trying to create a new icon with saffron colour in a true Goebblesian style distorting history in order to ride on a larger than life image of Sardar Patel?</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Or is it that, having highlighted the development plank, and soft-pedalling on the core Hindutva issues, Modi is now trying to use Sardar Patel, as a mere instrument, for political mobilisation, to which people, particularly in rural India may able to relate? And is the RSS' silence of Modi's adoption of Patel, only tactical, for the possible electoral benefit? Or is it a deeper acknowledgment of Patel's views of RSS?</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">In 2009, the debate over Patel's political legacy had split the top leadership of the BJP itself. While Jaswant Singh, had held Nehru and Patel both responsible for the partition of India in his book, Advani had suggesting that Patel had banned the RSS in 1948, under pressure from Nehru.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s8" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); font-weight: bold;">The dichotomy</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">Whatever Modi does or says seem to have a way of dividing opinion. He recently spoke about the priority to build toilets, rather than temples. While the sentiment attracted a lot of sympathy from a section of aspiring Indians, who are looking at Modi for deliverance; it also attracted hostility from the hardline Hindutva activists at the core of his support base.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The proposal to build the statue of Sardar Patel have not been politically divisive, so far, except for political opponents accusing Modi of opportunism. But the proposal to build a tourism and recreational facility near the statue, replete with resorts and golf courses, on land acquired from poor villagers, is surely going to raise further questions about the political sincerity of Modi and his commitment to professed development agenda.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">This dichotomy is not limited to the statue of Patel, though. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, there has been a distinct attempt to polarise public opinion on religious lines, by the lieutenants of Modi, as well as his opponents, in search of electoral dividend. While Modi continues to ride his developmental horse on his own campaign trail.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">The greater irony may be that the Statue of Sardar Patel may look over the yet to be completed Sardar Sarovar Dam on Narmada. The strong and decisive Sardar will be a permanent witness to the social, legal and political divisions created by his political inheritors leading to the indecisiveness on the future of the dam whose gates have not yet been installed, while money have flown like water over the dam.</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<span class="s10" style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0);">If Sardar Patel, the symbol of united India, was alive, he surely would not have been happy to see the disunited political fabric of India today. And Modi himself typifies that political division. While Modi may need Patel, but there are doubts whether Sardar Patel will oblige Modi!</span></div>
<div class="s11" style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-54123582191909664692012-08-11T23:38:00.002+05:302012-08-11T23:44:51.766+05:30The One-child Policy may stall China's rise<title></title>
<style type="text/css">
<!--
@page { size: 8.5in 11in; margin: 0.79in }
P { margin-bottom: 0.08in }
-->
</style>
<br />
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">During
a recent trip to China, I spoke at a couple of conferences on the
evolution of the population policy, in India and China. That gave me
an opportunity to discuss with quite a few Chinese, scholars and
students, the various dimensions of China's one child policy. I was
also surprised to learn that increasing number of Chinese scholars
are questioning the utility of the population policy, and warning of
the serious implications. With the help of research inputs from Prateek Kapil, I have tried to explore some the potential consequences of the
one-child policy for China, and for the rest of the world. China has
defied many conventional wisdom, whether it can defy the old adage
“demography is destiny” will be seen over the next few decades. A
version of this article has been published in the Geopolitical
Information Service.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<title></title>
<style type="text/css">
<!--
@page { size: 8.5in 11in; margin: 0.79in }
P { margin-bottom: 0.08in }
-->
</style>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In
the past three decades, China's rapid economic development has
attracted attention of the world as well as led to some anxiety.
However, in the next three decades, China's trajectory will be
determined by its rapidly changing demography. The signs are that
China's one child policy could stall its rise as dramatically. Today,
China faces its biggest challenge, it may become old without becoming
rich.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">During
his rule, Mao Zedong had suggested procreation was a patriotic duty
to boost labour force. After Mao's death, and the ensuing power
struggle, Deng Xiaoping took over the reins of power in Beijing and
initiated his economic reforms. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span lang="en-IN"><span style="color: black;">In
another clear break from the Mao era, on 25 September 1980, the
Politburo of the Communist Party issued an "open letter" to
all members of the party and the Communist youth league, urging them
to take the lead in having only one child.China's leaders were
reacting to an unprecedented population boom - from 540 million to
960 million people in just under 30 years. By 2010, </span></span>population
growth was slowed. Chinese authorities claim some 400 million births
have been prevented over the last three decades.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In
the 1970s, the fertility rate was about 5.5. By 2010, the United
Nation's Population Fund estimated the fertility rate at around 1.6
in China. According to the UN’s population division, the nationwide
fertility rate will continue to decline, reaching 1.51 in 2015-20.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), in a report in 2010,
had warned that officials were seriously overestimating the fertility
rate (the number of children an average woman can expect to have in
her lifetime). CASS report urged the government to try to and boost
the fertility rate at least to the replacement level of 2.1. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In
contrast, America’s fertility rate is 2.08 and rising. And India's
fertility rate stands at 2.63. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>The
Social Impact</b></span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">The
one-child policy, combined with a traditional preference for boys,
has sharply distorted the sex ratio (the number of females for every
1000 males). According to the UN estimates, the child sex ratio at
birth has declined from 935 females in the 1960s to 842 in 2010. Many
Chinese men over the age of 40, may never find a bride. A survey done
by the Xi'an Jiaotong University in 369 villages spread over 28
provinces found that on average there are 9 bachelors in every
village, with an average age of over 41 years. This distortion is
also leading to increase instances of violence and trafficking of
women within, and also from outside China.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">This
policy has also led to phenomenon like black marketing in the
adoption market, and “official” seizures of what the
administration labels illegal babies. A slew of negative side effects
have been noted, including a rise in sex-selective abortions and even
infanticide as many families sought male offspring. There has been
also been many reports of forced abortions, sterilizations and other
brutalities.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The
one-child policy came under renewed scrutiny in June 2012 after
22-year-old Feng Jianmei was forced to abort a seven-month fetus by
local officials who claimed she had violated family-planning rules.
It was also revealed that the officials had demanded a huge 40,000
RMB from this couple as fine and bribe to allow them to have the
second child. The picture of the listless woman on a hospital bed
soon after the abortion, led to a storm of protests in the Chinese
social media. The officials have now been hauled up by their
superiors. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">This
was hardly a rare incident. During visits to China, it is not
uncommon to come across young Chinse in their twenties who
acknowledge that they may not have been born if their parents had not
been able to pay off the local officials. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The
policy is also leading to new social issues in an old civilisation.
In China, traditionally, children looked after their old parents. The
4-2-1 family structure means that often it falls upon an young couple
to take care of two sets of parents and four sets of grandparents.
With economic growth and millions of people moving away from their
homes in search of better lives. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">China's
latest census puts the senior citizen population at 185 million, or
13%, over 60 years in age. And a tracking survey released in July
2012, found that almost half of them are living independently, and do
not see their children too often. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">A
draft law proposed in June 2012, to protect the rights of elderly,
includes a clause that would make it a legal duty of children to
visit their parents regularly. While the intentions behind the law
may be good, a “legal duty” may not really meet the emotional
needs of parents. Equally importantly, for many migrant Chinese
workers, it is not very feasible to take leave to travel home more
than once a year, many may not also be able to afford the cost of
travelling long distances. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The
established old-age security system too has failed to meet the
growing demand. There were about 38,000 old-age home in China in
2009, taking care of about 2.66 million elderly. But an additional 3
million beds are required to just meet the current needs. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>The
economic impact </b></span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" lang="en-IN" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The
economic impact of an aging China is already being felt. The median
age in China has risen from 22 in 1980, to 35 now, and if the trend
continues, by 2050, it will be closer to 50 years. In contrast, the
median age in the United States would be around 40 years by 2050, and
for India it is expected to be about 35 years.</span></span></span></div>
<div align="justify" lang="en-IN" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" lang="en-IN" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The
number of young people in the age group of 18 to 22 years peaked at
125.4 million in 2008, and is expected to decline to 56.2% of that
peak by 2020. Over the next ten years, the population in the age
group of 20-40 years could decline by 100 million. </span></span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Chinese
businesses are already feeling the pinch of this shifting demography.
The increasing incidences of labour disputes is just a manifestation
of the shortage of appropriately skilled labour, and the rising
labour costs. It is projected that between 2013-15, the working age
population in the age group of 15-64 years, will begin to shrink.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The
much talked about labour dispute at Foxconn Technology Group which
assembles Apple's iPad and iPhone, a couple of years ago, is typifies
the challenge. In February 2012, the company announced a hike in
starting monthly pay to 1,800 RMB (US$ 286), and this was the third
hike since 2010, when the salary was 900 RMB. Foxconn is now planning
to move a part of its manufacturing facility to Indonesia. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Addidas
has announced the closure of its garment production facility by
October 2012. IKEA is considering a move to Italy, to save cost, and
improve quality. And Nike's facility in Vietnam recorded higher share
of production than China's in 2010.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">A
study by the Boston Consultancy Group, released in earlier in 2012,
found that more than a third of executives at US based companies with
sales of over US$ 1 billion, are either planning to bring back some
of their production to the US from China, or are considering it. BCG
predicts that improved US productivity and competitiveness, coupled
with rising costs in China, would make a range of industries move at
least partially back to US. This could create 2 to 3 million
manufacturing jobs in the US, with an investment of US $ 100 billion,
over the next decade.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">A
growing number of economists are predicting a slow down in China in
the coming decades, due to shrinking labour pool, and rising costs.
And the aging demographic trend is likely to reduce China's capacity
to power economic growth due to increased domestic consumption. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" lang="en" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" lang="en" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>The
Other Dimensions</b></span></span></div>
<div align="justify" lang="en" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Changing
demography presents its own security and strategic challenges. The
low birthrate has adversely affected the recruitment of young people
to the military and security services. </span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">The
tragedy is that One-child policy was never supposed to be a permanent
measure, but was meant to bring down population growth to a
manageable level. Tian Xueyuan, a leading member of the team that
oversaw the policy's introduction, told the Jinghua Times: "The
purpose of the policy was to control birth rate for one generation."
The subtext has gone far beyond these justifications today.</span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Yet,
few expect significant changes to the one-child policy soon. <span lang="en-IN"><span style="color: black;">Chinese
officials continue to argue for continuity. </span></span></span></span>
</div>
<div align="justify" lang="en-IN" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="en-IN"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">Noted
political commentator Fareed Zakaria has succinctly summed up - “This
is actually a fascinating real life example of the problems with
centralized authoritarian regimes, even when they're as well run as
China's. When they make good decisions - on economic policy, for
example - they are rapidly implemented and well-executed. But the
same is true when they make a bad decision, or a decision that no
longer makes much sense. That seems to be the case with the one-child
policy.”</span></span></span></span></div>
<div align="justify" lang="en-IN" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" lang="en-IN" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The
irony is that Mao celebrated procreation, so that there would be
ample cannon fodder to showcase China's power. While Deng, unleashed
the animal spirit of China in the economic sphere, yet, put the
fretters in the bed room. China has paid a huge price for Mao's
follies. And may yet have to pay again for Deng's mistaken policy on
population. Only a new generation of leaders in China might be able
to break China free from the legacy of its two supreme leaders, and
avoid a demographic doom. But reversing the demographic trend is
extremely difficult, as Japan, Singapore, and some other developed
economies have discovere. If China fails to reverse the trend towards
becoming old before becoming rich, then the rise of China would stall
in the next few decades years.</span></span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Speculating on Deng Xiaoping motives underlying the one child
policy</b></span></span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">One
may never know the real motive behind Deng's decision to push for the
one-child policy. But one could speculate on a few factors that might
have influenced his decision. </span></span>
</div>
<ol>
<li><div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In
the 1970s, population growth was the biggest buzz in the world, and
Deng may have wanted to signal to the world about his progressive
concerns.</span></span></div>
</li>
<li><div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Deng
wanted to break from Mao's legacy, and just as he embarked on market
reforms, he questioned Mao's views on human proliferation.</span></span></div>
</li>
<li><div align="justify" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">While
embarking on market oriented reforms, Deng would have faced many
challenges from within the Communist Party. So the one-child policy
sent a message to the party and the population, that while China
would liberalise the economy, the party would still control one of
the most personal decisions of the people. This may have reassured
the party that it would retain absolute power over the people, even
while the people may enjoy some freedom in the economic domain.</span></span></div>
</li>
</ol>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-6261687511523146352012-07-27T15:23:00.000+05:302012-07-27T16:39:04.475+05:30Politics of Power: Electricity reforms in India<title></title>
<style type="text/css">
<!--
@page { size: 8.5in 11in; margin: 0.79in }
P { margin-bottom: 0.08in }
-->
</style>
<br />
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Most
Indians experience daily power cuts. Now, voters are realising that
the price of being powerless without electricity, which may be free
yet not available at all, can be quite high. And politicians too are
becoming aware of the high political price for promising electric
power and then failing to meet the growing demand. This is putting a
premium on availability of reliable electricity. I explore the changing
political dynamics over electric power, and look at the prospect of creating new opportunities
for politicians and policy makers to explore new and innovative ways
to reform the electricity sector. A slightly shorter version of the article has been published in the Asian Wall Street Journal, on July 26, 2012, under the title "Power to India's People".</span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The longer version is below. </span></span></span><br />
<title></title>
<style type="text/css">
<!--
@page { size: 8.5in 11in; margin: 0.79in }
P { margin-bottom: 0.08in }
-->
</style>
<br />
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">India
is facing an electricity crisis. This year, five states have declared
power holidays and another eight say they intend to ration power at
peak times. Nationwide, there is a peak shortage of around 12%. </span></span></span>
</div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">This
isn’t exactly a new problem for India since it’s faced such
shortages in the past few decades, but this time there is a
difference. Voters earlier may have countenanced blackouts, but the
increasing living standards of the past decade have now made them
unwilling to do so. Some state governments are summoning the will for
change, and one in particular has even developed solutions that open
the door for more policy innovation and reform.</span></span></span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">For
decades, the political wisdom was to provide electricity at very low
cost to consumers, and often at no cost to farmers. So while one set
of users paid little or nothing, another set usually comprising
primarily of the commercial and industrial users, often paid three to
four times higher. These so-called cross subsidies couldn’t keep up
with politicians’ promises though. The result was a big financial
hole for the power generator or distributor—these days the
latter—which eventually left it unable to supply power.</span></span></span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Voter
agitation about these shortages, as well as recent state election
victories for parties that talk about reforming public services, have
gotten politicians to rethink their tack. The southern state of Tamil
Nadu, in the face of rolling blackouts for 2-6 hours every day,
agreed to hike tariffs for the first time in a decade this year. The
enormity of the situation can perhaps be best appreciated from the
fact that the two major parties in the state haven’t opposed the
construction of the Kundakulam nuclear power plant, despite NGO
protests over it since last year’s Fukushima meltdown in Japan.</span></span></span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Next,
consider Gujarat, which has summoned the political will for a new
creative idea. In the past decade, it has built a parallel
distribution grid, particularly in rural areas, and offered consumers
a unique choice. If farmers opt for the new grid, separating domestic
and agricultural connections, they are assured electricity for 8
hours a day, but at higher tariffs (they can still access the old
grid). Or they could remain on just the old supply network, without
any assurance of supply of electricity, but at the lower price. To
the surprise of many observers, farmers have opted for the former. At
the same time there has been an aggressive steps to curb theft of
electricity.</span></span></span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;">Tamil
Nadu and Gujarat’s examples clearly show that people prefer stable
supply of power over its price. The ideal next step is complete
deregulation of distribution, but let’s be realistic: Few
politicians will abandon control so quickly; nor will they be brave
enough to immediately take this radical solution to voters. Meantime,
though, state governments can take their innovations to the next
level. </span><br /><br /><span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;">Gujarat’s
case demonstrates that farmers could do with the irregular supply for
some needs such as running household appliances, but for larger
requirements like tending to their fields, they specifically want a
<i>premium</i> supply. Yet, right now, this comes in the form of a
second distribution network, which</span> is <span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;">expensive
to build and maintain. Increasingly, however, rural households too
are beginning to realise the benefit of assured electric supply, and
many are opting for the new three phase supply, at a higher rates,
which allows them to start small household businesses too. Despite
all these changes, those who want to retain their old connections
based on size of their electric motors, at fixed but low tariff,
without assured supply, are allowed to do so too. This option has
been a very important element in diffusing the political opposition
to increase in tariff. </span></span></span></span></span>
</div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;">Vernon
Smith, the Nobel laureate economist had suggested differential
pricing as an economic strategy to overcome political opposition to
increase in tariff using the same grid. One way forward is for
consumers to pay a below-market price for ‘x’ units of
electricity—or, for the poorest households, even make consumption
of these ‘x’ units free. But above ‘x’, electricity should be
priced competitively. </span></span></span></span></span><title></title>
<style type="text/css">
<!--
@page { size: 8.5in 11in; margin: 0.79in }
P { margin-bottom: 0.08in }
-->
</style>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;"><span lang="en-US"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: black;">The
'x' could be calculated on the basis of average household consumption
in the past three or five years. Or it could be politically agreed
upon to make a certain minimum amount of electricity as a right
available to all households at a nominal or no cost. </span></span></span></span></span>
</div>
<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: black;"><br /><br />Today, per capita consumption of
electricity in India is one-twentieth of that in the United States.
<span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;">As India’s economy grows, more
people will begin to enjoy the benefits of many modern appliances,
and consume more electricity, this big marginal increase in
consumption would be paid at market prices. After some years,
most of electricity consumption will be at competitive prices.</span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: black;"><br /><span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;">Such
a transition will change the landscape of the power industry and make
it more economically viable. It will reduce the incentive for
political interference in pricing, since consumers would be willingly
hiking their electricity consumption and enjoy assured supply,
without expecting to be subsidized. Meanwhile, politicians can still
claim to be pro-poor. Losses incurred by state-owned distribution
companies, which currently runs to over 1 trillion rupees ($ 20
billion) all over India, would dramatically come down.</span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;">As
a result, this system would stop skewing price signals. Today’s
distribution network involves below-market prices nearly across the
board, which means that few producers have incentives to set up power
plants. Even in Gujarat, the incentive isn’t fully in place since
one distribution grid still operates on subsidies. </span></span></span></span>
</div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="-moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; background: rgb(255, 255, 255) none repeat scroll 0% 50%;">This
plan for a single-grid premium system still involves some
distortions, but that distortion itself dwindles once most
electricity consumption takes place above ‘x’. And this is,
anyway, an intermediate solution to convince voters of the idea of
paying competitive prices for quality supply from utilities they took
for granted a decade ago. A grid that is financially viable will also
allow large consumers and generators to directly negotiate the price
of electricity, and this increased capacity to trade in electricity
which will dramatically improve the financial health of the
generators and assure quality supply to consumers.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div lang="en-US" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="en-US"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman,serif;"><span style="color: black;">Clearly,
innovations like these will not occur overnight, and not across all
states at the same time. But voters are realising that the price of
being powerless without electricity, which may be free yet not
available at all, can be quite high. And politicians too are becoming
aware of the high political price for promising electric power and
then failing to meet the growing demand. So the political trend in
favor of competition is clear, and in a federal setup such as India,
the onus will fall on the states to explore and experiment with such
ideas. When political leaders feel confident that voters are behind
them, these governments will surely begin to take the small steps
leading to bigger reforms in the electricity sector.</span></span></span></span></div>
</div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-11715751823846351692012-03-13T09:15:00.001+05:302012-03-14T09:26:40.171+05:30Democratic Dividend: Lessons from UP election<div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblSynopsis">When political parties face intense electoral competition, they are forced to focus on growth and governance. Or they may continue to pander to identity politics, and risk becoming politically irrelevant. This is the lesson from the recent assembly election in Uttar Pradesh. The contours of Indian politics are beginning to change, as the significance of identity politics in India begins to diminish. I suggest that this political shift is opening up the need to explore new policy options. This was published in the Asian Wall Street Journal on 13 March 2012, titled "<a href="http://www.indefenceofliberty.org/story/4335/4479/Indias-Democratic-Dividend-Lessons-from-UP-Election">India's democratic dividend</a>".</span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblStory_Article">The consensus view for most of the past decade in India held that good economic policy did not make for good politics. New Delhi's trade and investment openings since 1991 mostly benefited the middle class, while the poor in rural areas kept voting for corrupt politicians who promised more handouts. <br />
<br />
Last week's election results in five Indian states turned the conventional wisdom on its head. Voters, especially in India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, resoundingly favored parties that promised development. The elites are still in a state of shock.<br />
<br />
Actually a few states started voting in this direction five years ago, but the verdict in UP confirmed the trend. Fifteen years ago, the state typified the problem elites had with Indian democracy. In the late 1980s, after the Congress Party lost dominance, political parties started competing, but their first instinct was to fragment along caste and religious lines.<br />
<br />
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) initially won power by appealing to hardcore Hindu voters, especially in the wake of the demolition of a famous mosque and Hindu-Muslim riots in 1991-92. The Samajwadi Party's base used to be lower castes and Muslims. And the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), led by the fiery Ms. Mayawati, was India's first party of Dalits, a section of the population whom the higher caste Hindus considered to be Untouchables.<br />
<br />
From the mid-1990s till 2007, every political party failed to expand its appeal. UP is India's democratic laboratory because, like the country, its population of 200 million has tremendous religious and ethnic diversity. Neither the hardline Hindu base nor the Dalit base by itself can be dominant enough to ensure electoral victory. Keeping in mind India's first-past-the-post electoral system, a winning party has to secure the support of diverse voting blocks.<br />
<br />
The party that understands this reality will win. In 2007, the Samajwadi Party didn't get it. It had been ruling in UP since 2004 by the sheer caprice of its ministers. The party fielded mafia dons as legislators, destroying the administrative machinery of the state and making voters nervous about law and order. When state elections came in 2007, Samajwadi campaigned by pandering to Muslims and its lower-caste base. Presuming these voters were economically backward, it played up the politics of envy by clamoring against modern technology and English-language education. <br />
<br />
Ms. Mayawati's BSP, on the other hand, decided that it would have to go beyond Dalits. This base constituted just over 20% of the vote in the state. It had become clear that even if the whole group stayed loyal to the party, it would still not add up to around 30% of the popular vote, which is necessary to have a realistic possibility of winning a majority of seats. So Ms. Mayawati consciously promised law and order as a way to expand her appeal. Defying the pundits, she won. <br />
<br />
Ms. Mayawati may have succeeded in 2007 by promising much, but she failed to deliver. Yes, the general law and order improved in leaps and bounds, which helped the state grow 7% annually in her term. But two issues failed to convince voters she had true pan-UP appeal. <br />
First, she emphasized her Dalit identity, building memorials to Dalit icons at huge cost to the taxpayer. This reminded voters of her second problem—a penchant for marquee public-sector schemes. Big projects like a Formula One racecourse tainted her with cronyism. By 2012, her party was most identified with the allegation of corruption in the National Rural Health Mission, where ministers and senior officials were accused of misappropriation of funds, and many functionaries connected to the scheme died under suspicious circumstances. Meanwhile, Ms. Mayawati failed to undertake governance reforms. <br />
<br />
Samajwadi, desperate to come back to power, hammered these issues in the 2012 campaign and beat the BSP. Moreover, it learned from its pre-2007 mistakes. Its young leader Akhilesh Yadav, now set to become chief minister, played the aspiration card. Using both traditional rallies and new social media, he emphasized how Samajwadi would promote law and order (no more mafia dons as ministers) and push modern education (by offering free laptops and tablets), while not pandering exclusively to certain castes. Mr. Yadav apologized for the party's previous errors. <br />
<br />
Mr. Yadav knows his party can only survive by pushing the singular message that appeals to everyone in UP: growth and governance. The next five years will tell if Mr. Yadav can live up to his promises—if he fails, another party will win by taking the growth-and-governance message to the next level. <br />
<br />
It is also worth noting that while the regional parties realized the need to adopt a more inclusive strategy, the larger national parties, the BJP and Congress, both played the divisive caste and religion card. They failed, and they will have to change or risk becoming irrelevant.<br />
This political churn is significant because it's clear now that competition forces parties to focus on good economics. My analysis of India-wide voting patterns and growth rates in the past decade shows that when parties get re-elected by too wide a margin, they don't focus on development. But when political competition increases, and the prospect of electoral defeat looms, the parties pay much more attention to growth. <br />
<br />
Indians often wonder why their country didn't grow as fast as Western liberal democracies did in the 19th century. The answer is that though India became a pluralistic democracy in 1947, vigorous competition among parties only started in the late 1980s. Since then, as the economy has seen the best performance in its history, democracy finally started paying dividends.</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblSynopsis"></span></span></div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-88589461149074258022012-03-06T20:43:00.000+05:302012-03-06T20:43:33.266+05:30Democratic Dividend: Economic benefit from political competition<div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblSynopsis">In 2012, developmental issues have firmly emerged at the top of the agenda of most major political parties. Yet, barely a decade ago, many believed that India was paying a “democracy tax”, that political pluralism was at the cost of economic well being. Today, increasing political competition has opened new opportunities for the voters not only to demand performance but drive the economic changes as their aspirations rise. This is forcing politicians to explore new ideas that might meet these demands. Is it time for India to reap the economic dividend from political democracy? A longer version is "<a href="http://www.indefenceofliberty.org/story/4332/4473/Democratic-Dividend-Economic-benefit-from-political-competition">Democratic Dividend: Economic benefit from political competition</a>". A shorter version was published in the <b>Mint</b>, on 6 March 2012.</span></span></div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-35625940831618197132012-02-02T09:28:00.001+05:302012-03-14T09:36:16.756+05:30Can one buy an election?<div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblSynopsis">Contrary to popular chatter, there seems to be little or no correlation between the amount of money a party or a candidate has and the likelihood of it winning an election. It is time we consider removing the limits on election expenditure, that has done little to restrain cost of elections. A law that can neither be obeyed nor enforced, is contributing to undermining the legitimacy of democracy, and of politics. Therefore an open election expense law, with no limit but complete disclosure, would be a better idea, I suggest in this article in the <a href="http://www.financialexpress.com/news/can-one-buy-an-election/906804/0">Financial Express</a>, on 2 February 2012.</span></span></div><div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblStory_Article">There can be no two opinions that Indian elections have become prohibitively expensive. Also, there is widespread apprehension that money is used to unduly influence voters.<br />
<br />
Despite reams lamenting these threats to democracy, and a constant flow of anecdotal reports in the media, it is really surprising that there is little hard evidence to support such fears. Let us look at some of the evidence and arguments that are used to support the view that money is corrupting the election process. <br />
<br />
Currently, the election expenditure on each candidate is limited by law to R25 lakh in a Lok Sabha constituency, and R10 lakh in a Vidhan Sabha constituency in large states. Candidates are to maintain daily accounts, and also to submit a final statement within 30 days of the election. <br />
<br />
The Election Commission has made rigorous efforts to monitor election expenditures during the two weeks of campaigning. Expenditure observers are sent out, armed with a 165-page document on how to keep track of election expenses, including videography. There is another 10-page document on the ECI website that lists various provisions of laws relating to offenses and corrupt practices in connection with elections. <br />
<br />
With such a proactive role, one would expect that the ECI has been successful in prosecuting and punishing the guilty. Over the years, there have been barely a handful of instances when ECI has been able to disqualify a winning candidate for violating the election rules. In all these years, not one candidate has filed an election account above the permissible limit, and no one has been prosecuted for exceeding the expenditure limit. <br />
<br />
In one case, a person was disqualified because of his failure to submit the account within the time limit. Last year, an MLA from UP, who had won the assembly election in 2007, was disqualified because of complaints lodged by another candidate. The charge was of placing misleading advertisements in local newspapers, which could be mistaken as positive news coverage. The ECI found the person guilty of not reporting an amount of around R21,000 paid towards these advertisements, and barred her from contesting elections for the next three years. A more celebrated case, against the former Maharashtra chief minister Ashok Chavan, for using “paid news” in the 2009 state assembly election, has been pending before the EC. <br />
<br />
These few instances would suggest that either the ECI has been spectacularly successful in enforcing the election expenditure limits, or that the ECI has miserably failed in this regard. <br />
However, the ECI admits that there is a problem. They point to the R75 crore seized during assembly elections in 2011. In the current election season so far, the EC has seized about R45 crore of cash. <br />
<br />
While these figures are large, they pale in comparison to what is commonly believed to circulate at election times. It is thought that to mount a serious election campaign in an assembly constituency today, at least R1 crore is needed. With about 700 constituencies going to polls in this round, spread over 5 states, that would total up to around R1,400 crore, if one conservatively assumes that only two serious contenders are present in each constituency. <br />
Recently, officers of the Income Department had been quoted in the media saying that they expect about R2,400 crore of black money to be spent in the ongoing UP assembly election alone. Clearly, there is a huge gulf between the legally permissible expenditure, the ECI’s capacity to monitor and enforce the law, and the wider perception. <br />
<br />
After a prolonged campaign by citizens’ groups, 10 years ago, the Supreme Court had ordered that all candidates had to file an affidavit before the election authorities, containing information about their assets and liabilities, their educational qualifications, and to make public their criminal records. <br />
<br />
A summary analysis of the average assets of MLAs of major political parties from all the states suggest that there is no evidence to suggest that rich candidates can help their parties win the election in any significant way (see table). <br />
<br />
Punjab is going to poll this time. In 2007, the average asset of Congress MLAs in Punjab was significantly higher than that of the Akali Dal and BJP. Yet, the former lost that election. This time, the average assets of Akali candidates has almost doubled from R4 crore to R7.5 crore, while that of the Congress candidates has increased from R5.3 crore to R8.2 crore. Yet, no party is sure of winning the election, although in the past 40 years, Punjab has never reelected the governing party. <br />
<br />
In another crucial state, Uttar Pradesh, in 2007, the average assets of BSP’s MLAs was R70 lakh, while that of the Congress and the SP was R2.9 crore and R1.4 crore, respectively. Yet, BSP surprised most people by winning a majority of its own in the state for the first time. <br />
Another state where money is believed to play a significant role in elections is Tamil Nadu. In 2006, the average assets of DMK and Congress MLAs was R95 lakh and R2.4 crore, respectively. The DMK alliance had defeated the ruling AIADMK alliance, whose MLAs could only average about R89 lakh. However, in 2011 election, the tables turned. While the DMK and Congress MLAs have average assets of R9.2 crore and R6.2 crore, respectively, a significant increase from five years ago, they lost the election to AIADMK whose MLAs had an average asset base of R3.4 crore. <br />
<br />
In Gujarat, after the 2007 election, the average assets of Congress MLA were more than that of BJP, although the latter won the election handsomely for the third time in a row. On the other hand, in Rajasthan, the average assets of BJP MLAs after the 2008 election stood at R2.8 crore, but it lost the closely fought election to Congress whose MLAs’ averaged R1.8 crore in assets. <br />
<br />
Money is important in an election, but even more important is the message that resonates among citizens. The historic Lok Sabha election of 1977 showed the importance of the message, and the capacity of the ordinary voter to choose. For the first time, the Congress lost power at the national level despite its total political dominance at the time, and unlimited access to money and power. <br />
<br />
The debate over the role of money in elections has fatally damaged the credibility of the political leaders, all of whom support election expenditure limits. They have made a law, which can neither be obeyed nor enforced. This has made the politicians look highly hypocritical, and inevitably raised questions over their own legitimacy. This has also led to undermining the credibility of elections, the most critical element in a democracy. <br />
<br />
Also, the focus on election funding has diverted attention from the more basic reasons for corruption in public life, such as discretionary powers that provide lucrative opportunities for rent seeking by public servants. <br />
<br />
The limit on election expenditure could also be considered to be a limit of freedom of expression. How and why should a supporter of a particular candidate be stopped from doing do? This was an argument that was successfully presented before the US Supreme Court in the 1970s, which had ruled campaign finance limits to be unconstitutional. <br />
<br />
The focus on money power actually is an insult to the capacity of the ordinary voters in the country, who regularly participate and repeatedly demonstrated the legitimacy of the electoral process. If the voters are willing to sell their votes for a few rupees, then the country may not be worth saving.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://indefenceofliberty.org/admin/thumbnail/FE--ElectionFunding-BM-2Feb2012.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="318" src="http://indefenceofliberty.org/admin/thumbnail/FE--ElectionFunding-BM-2Feb2012.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
Rather than election expenditure limits, it is time to rethink the idea itself. An open election expense law, with complete disclosure, and a severe penalty for non-compliance would not only be politically desirable, but also legally enforceable. Such a change in our law would go a long way in cleaning up our election system. </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblSynopsis"></span></span></div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-18540280860440411272012-01-28T20:28:00.001+05:302012-03-06T20:34:17.740+05:30Can bad politics make for good economics?<div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblSynopsis">It is generally believed that good economic policies do not necessarily lead to electoral victory, in India. There is a general agreement that economic competition improves the lot of the paying consumer. So, what might be the impact of political competition? While economic growth is not sufficient to help win an election, could increased political competition among major political formations help in adopting economic policies that perform, and contribute to marginal improvements in the lot of the citizens? I look at the possible relationship between economic growth and election outcome in the states of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, in "<a href="http://www.indefenceofliberty.org/story/4320/4458/Can-bad-politics-make-for-good-economics">Can bad politics make for good economics</a>?" in the <b>Financial Express</b>, on 28 January 2012. </span></span></div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-47921574347295419642011-08-23T16:37:00.002+05:302011-08-25T10:17:04.678+05:30Corruption: Causes, Consequences and Cures<div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblSynopsis">The current campaign against corruption provides a golden opportunity to Dr Manmohan Singh to lead from the front. There is an urgent need for speeding up the process of economic, administrative and judicial reforms, not only to push the economy to a higher growth path, but also to help reduce the scope for corruption. Being the Prime Minister of India, he must spell out the options before the country. Then it would be for the people to decide in a democracy.</span></span></div><blockquote style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblTitle"><i>Typically, corruption, or rent seeking, is a consequence of the gulf that exists between supply and demand for any goods or services due to regulatory interventions. Despite, two decades of economic reforms, the regulatory and policy environment in many areas of the economy continue to be quite restrictive, and discretionary powers prevail. It is particularly in those areas where corruption continues to prevail.</i></span></span></blockquote><blockquote style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>The current focus on corruption should help us investigate these details and come up with systemic reforms. Any anti-corruption agency has to be a part of this overall architecture, rather than being yet another body to monitor, investigate and prosecute those involved in corrupt practices. Otherwise, the Lok Pal, or any such agency, will inevitably become a Joke Pal, it wouldn’t matter which version of the bill gets passed in Passed in Parliament.</i></span></blockquote><div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <span id="ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_lblTitle">The complete analysis is available here, <b>"<a href="http://www.indefenceofliberty.org/story.aspx?id=4193&pubid=4292">Cleaning up Corruption: An agenda for India</a></b></span><b>"</b></span></div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-24278427347151369992011-08-20T12:37:00.001+05:302011-08-20T14:15:51.115+05:30Gandhians today, and Gandhi yesterday<div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Many of today’s anti-corruption protestors believe that they are participating in the second freedom struggle from misrule. Ambedkar had warned against extra-constitutional means of protests. But today, in the name of Gandhi, many believe that constitutional processes are expendable. Actually, It is good that Gandhi is back in the public memory. If this provides an opportunity to try and understand him, it will be even better. While the tumultuous protests we are witnessing today seem to cluster under the umbrella of Gandhism, how Gandhian is the Anna Hazare led movement?<br />
</div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In this article <i><b>"<a href="http://www.indefenceofliberty.org/story.aspx?id=4191&pubid=4290">Gandhism redux? Wanna be Gandhis and the original Gandhi</a>"</b></i>, I attempt to understand Gandhi and his relevance today.</div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-54766508525521271822011-08-17T22:38:00.001+05:302011-08-19T22:46:44.676+05:30Corruption: How not to fight it<div style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:UseFELayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman";}
</style> <![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;">In the past few months, the debate over black money and corruption has been raging across the country. Some social activists and the government have been at loggerheads over the scope and structure of a new anti-corruption authority being proposed. There have been claims ranging from tens of billions of dollars to over a trillion dollar, money that may have been illegally acquired or wealth that evaded taxation. But the issue of corruption is not just about policing, but should be about about policies that help generate black money in the first place. The current focus on the Lok Pal, as a super cop, is only diverting attention from the real roots of corruption. I have co-authored this article with my friend <b>Mohit Satyanand. </b>One version of this article is posted in the Liberty Institute website, <b>"<a href="http://www.indefenceofliberty.org/story.aspx?id=4190&pubid=4288">Chasing Black Money: In search of red herrings</a>"</b>.<b><br />
</b></span></div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-28942094977095178922011-06-04T10:14:00.006+05:302011-09-14T12:25:53.314+05:30Political Poribartan in West Bengal: A blueprint for ushering in real change<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">West Bengal just had an historic election. The thirty year rule of the Left Front government has come to an end. In the following analysis I look at the political future of in Bengal, and the policy options before the new government. A version of this article was publisehd in the <i><b>Anada Bazar Patrika</b></i> on June 30, 2011. Shorter versions of this article have been published in the <i><b>Financial Express</b></i> and <i><b>Pragati</b></i> magazine.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">It has been a few weeks, since Mamata Banerjee and her newly elected team of ministers took the oath of office. True to her style, the new Chief Minister of West Bengal has set a frantic pace for herself, holding innumerable meetings and making surprise visits to hospitals and other public spots, firing off instant orders, cajoling the government staff to serve the people better. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">While Mamata Banerjee’s intentions are clear, she continues to be the dominant face of her government and party. There is a limit to the number of places she could try and visit, and the number of orders she could issue, given the enormity of the tasks before her following her historic election, defeating the Marxist led Left Front government in Bengal which had been in office continually for nearly three and a half decades.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Football is like a religion in Bengal. A burst of speed and waves of initial attack on the opponent’s goal may be a good strategy at the start of a fresh game, but is not sustainable over the full length of the game. First, there is the danger that in this rapid forward thrust towards the goalposts on the other side, players can easily get stretched, and distracted, and end up conceding a goal themselves, from a counter-attack by the other side. Secondly, there needs to be a much more detailed planning and preparation, a range of strategies and tactics to adopt, as the game progresses.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mamata Banerjee is leading from the front, as the captain and manager of her team. But as the Chief Minister of Bengal, will she have the time and energy left to make the kind of sustained reforms on policy fronts that alone can revive the fortune of West Bengal. She is counting on help from diverse academics, intellectuals, and technocrats to help her shape her policies. But politics is not just about technical expertise, political leaders need to give clear direction to her team, and then needs to make her case to the public in a way that makes political sense. The challenge before her is how to convert good politics in to good policies. The game has begun, and the clock is ticking away, time is no longer on her side.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">She ran a campaign on the agenda of change, and the huge mandate she has won only indicates the sky high expectation of the people. While the people have endorsed the Trinamool Congress led alliance, the real challenge for the new government is now before them – to govern in a way that will meet the expectations of the people.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">For the past four years, Mamata Banerjee’s political career has been rising, powered by the agitations she led in Singur and Nandigram, against the forcible land acquisition policy and heavy handed action by the previous Left Front government in 2006 and 2007. For the first time she breached the formidable rural base of the CPI(M), in the Panchayat election of 2008. Then she joined hands with the Congress, in the general election of 2009, and for the first time humbled the Left Front in over 30 years, winning 26 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. Then in 2010, she fought the municipal elections across the state on her own, and again won in majority of urban areas, including Kolkata. The political momentum was clearly in her favour when she formed the grand coalition with the Congress to take on the Left Front in the assembly election of 2011.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">For the first time people in West Bengal had a credible political opposition to the CPI(M). The election drew the curtain on the 34 year rule of the world’s only communist led democratically elected government, which had won a record seven successive elections since 1977.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Revolution thro’ the ballot</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mamata Banerjee’s electoral achievement, in the 2011 election, is historic! It is a local version of the 1977 epic general election when a people’s movement, across India, brought about the defeat of the Congress party at the national level, for the first time in Independent India. That historic election 34 years ago established the foundation of India’s electoral democracy, with the first constitutional transition of national government through the ballot box. But today, while many remember that historic event, not many may have any fond memories of the three years that the first non-Congress government ruled the country. And the same people, who had voted them in 1977, voted them out in 1980, electing the Congress again.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Today, Mamata Banerjee’s party has been propelled to political power by ordinary people at the grassroots, securing for her nearly 49% of the popular vote. If the expectations of the people are not met, the disenchantment will quickly grow. Higher the level of expectations, greater might be the sense of disappointment. If a sense of purpose and performance do not become evident, people’s support could easily turn in to ire and anger.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Just 5 years ago, Buddhadeb Bhatacharjee had led the Left Front to a resounding reelection victory riding on the promise of Brand Buddha, of industrial revival and economic opportunities. Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee struggled to qualify as the legally recognized opposition party, with less than 10% of the 294 seats in the assembly. Not many believed that she could politically win the state, although her ability to take on a political fight was well established.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">But within a couple of years ‘Brand Buddha’ had begun to lose its shine as the protests against land forcible acquisition build up. The violent response from the police and the cadres of the CPI(M), shocked most people, rural as well as urban population. Suddenly the protests against land acquisition had turned in to a wider issue of dignity and justice, touching millions.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">This time, Mamata Banerjee provided a great vision, reviving the place of Bengal in the Indian rubric. She has promised peace and prosperity, to reinvigorate agriculture and industry, to turn Kolkata in to London, Darjeeling in to Switzerland, and to build on the rich cultural and intellectual heritage of Bengal. She sought to remind voters of Bengal glorious cultural roots, and offered a promising future.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Trinamool Congress campaign was in sharp contrast to that of the Left Front. The latter had a two-point agenda, harping on the hollowness of Mamata Banerjee’s poll promises, and apologizing for some vague mistakes made by the party, while seeking one more opportunity. It was really strange that the Left Front hardly showcased the record of it own government in the past five years of double digit economic growth, nor did they point to any particular successes from their 34 year long uninterrupted rule. The dominant sense of the Left Front’s campaign was fear mongering and angry outbursts. On the other hand, Mamata Banerjee not only highlighted the atrocities under the Left Front, but also provided a grand vision of reviving Bengal’s culture and economy.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The new Chief Minister has set very clear timeline, for the first 100 days, for the 200 days, and the next three years. At the very least this has provided a benchmark to hold her government to account. More importantly, this may provide additional impetus to the new government to think out of the box, and try to meet the people’s expectations.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Beyond symbolism</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">While on the day of being sworn in, Mamata Banerjee set some new precedents and symbolizing her campaign promise of staying close to people on the ground. She invited people from very diverse walks of life, celebrities and commoner, to witness the oath ceremony. She then walked the one and a half kilometers from the Governor’s House to the Writers’ Building, the state secretariat, through tens of thousands of her admirers and supporters, who had gathered to share a bit of history in the making.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">But political symbolism is no substitute for political performance, which alone can help sustain the credibility of the symbolic gestures. Mamata Banerjee’s political capital may deplete quickly unless she can find ways to improve the performance of her government in a very visible form and in a relatively short time.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">She does not have to rediscover the wheel, though, since there are quite a few examples of Chief Ministers who have been attempting to turn their state around in a relatively short time. Law and order have been a key issue, in West Bengal, as it has been in states like Assam and Bihar. Improvement in the law and order situation, it is believed, contributed significantly to the reelection of the ruling parties in these states.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Change, not revenge</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mamata Banerjee has been saying that she wants change not revenge (Badal chai, Badla noi,). In addition to seeking to restrain her jubilant supporters who may seek to target the activists of the Left Front, she needs to show an improvement of general law and order situation in the state.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Over the past decade, extortions in one form or another has been almost institutionalized in West Bengal. For instance, it is not uncommon for house owners to have a visit from local youth club, if he builds additional rooms or gives a room on rent. Hardly any property can be developed without satisfying demands of some elements. Then there is the feeling among many that the police do not entertain complaints unless approved by appropriate political authority. At every festival, local youths stop commercial vehicles demanding a donation from the hapless drivers.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">West Bengal has a notorious record of political violence, quite apart from those related to the Naxalites. Post election violence has been a routine feature, over the past decade. Supporters of political parties have attacked each other, killed hundreds, burnt houses, and driven out many out of their homes. This time, there have been a few instances of attacks on political activists of different parties, but so far these have been far fewer than in the past.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mamata Banerjee has promised a change in political culture, and it is this culture of political violence that she needs to break. Perhaps this is the reason why even before the results of the election were announced she had been urging her supporters not to organize big celebrations and victory rallies. Rather she sought to channel the energy of her supporters to sing Tagore’s song and be in the constituency to thank the people, and to focus on the task of bringing about the promised change. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">More critically, an attempt to put a stop to the politics of vendetta, would allow the space and time to focus on the key changes that are necessary in a politically less polarized environment.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Depoliticisation of administration</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Politicisation of the police force has been a big issue in Bengal for quite some time. There have been allegations of the police being infiltrated by CPI(M) cadres, and that they worked only as per the direction of the party leadership at different levels. But it can be changed relatively easily. A political decision need to be taken that political intervention in the basic police function will not be tolerated. Once the message permeates out to the rank and file of the police force, those who had earlier politically compromised themselves will either get isolated within or have to change to their approach.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">With her resounding message of change, it is reasonable to believe that their will be significant sections of people in all organizations, including the police and the administration, who given the political lead towards performance and professionalism, will soon be able to bring about the necessary changes and show results. It is these professional and dedicated police personnel who need to be assured that they should act without political consideration, and that they will not be penalized if they act impartially and professionally.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The discovery of huge cache of arms from different villages in rural Bengal almost every day, since the day election results came out, is an indication of what is possible, once the message of change permeates to the grassroots. Ordinary people seem to be coming forward with information and helping the police to unearth these weapons, something that would not have happened a month ago. Clearly, the winds of change have started blowing at the grassroots.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Today, a lot of people in Bihar believe that the most basic change that Nitish Kumar had been able to bring about was in policing, which dramatically helped in improving the law and order situation most visibly, within a very short time. This was a low hanging fruit!</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">One of the first decisions of the new cabinet has been to institute a committee to review the instances of political prisoners languishing in various jails. While this is a very welcome step, equally it is very important to acknowledge that West Bengal has a history of political violence, and most political parties have engaged in it at one time or another. It could be cathartic to institute a political reconciliation commission, where people of all political shades could come up and submit evidence of political violence, and also admit to their own roles in it. The idea would not be to hold anyone guilty, but to document and publicly acknowledge these tragic instances, and build popular pressure on the political leadership of all parties to eschew political violence.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In this environment of change, such a political reconciliation could truly initiate change in the political culture of the state. Political differences could then be legitimately channeled through the democratic space, rather than outside it.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Recognising land rights</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">However, the first cabinet decision was to return 400 acres of land in Singur to the families who were reluctant give their land for the Tata Nano project. The Trinamool Congress is also against forcible acquisition of land. However, recognizing and protecting land rights is only the first critical step towards substantively changing the land laws. The land rights need to be converted in to clear title. The title needs to be easily tradable, so that the owner is in a position to maximize the value of the property. But the value of the property is dependent primarily on what use it can be legally put to. After all, value of land is function of the use it could be put to agriculture, residential or commercial.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The political durability of the Left Front government has been largely due to “operation barga” - the share cropping rights of farmer that the government recognized in rural Bengal. Part of the problem in Singur was the lack of clarity about compensation and rehabilitation of those who may not have title to the land, but still had share cropping rights on that land. The Left Front government made the fatal political mistake in believing that since they undertook they gave land to the tiller, they could also take it away from the tiller.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">There needs to be a new arrangement between land owners and share croppers where perhaps they could each hold a certain percentage shares to the land title. There could be various ways to compensate the land owners, either through a land bank or land fund. Also, if the share cropper wants to sell his share of the land, then that could be purchased back by the land owner, or the owner could get a share of the sale proceeds.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">None of these steps may be ideal or perfectly just. But this could help cut the Gordian knot which has tied up huge tracts of rural land. A vast majority of cases clogging the lower levels of judiciary relate to land disputes. Bringing about such changes would free up not just the land, but also huge amount of dead capital that is currently locked up in land.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">For instance, farmers could start a company on the basis of their land ownership, and convert parts of the land for commercial and residential development, while maintaining agriculture in other areas. It would be also pertinent to ask why it is right to encourage industry to grow, and control hundreds of areas of land, while farmers are expected to survive on small parcels, and legally prohibited to expand their land holding because of land ceiling restrictions.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">This will require a reform in the zoning laws as well. Bengal hosts a huge number of small businesses and workshops, a very large number of them in the informal sector. These provide the bulk of employment opportunities to people. Legalising these properties would open up huge potential for investment, opening enormous economic and employment opportunities.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Recognising land rights, documenting land ownership, facilitating land transactions, freeing up land use, will also help in diffusing the apparent conflict between agriculture and industry.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The outcome of the election in West Bengal will have an impact on the national political agenda. The political significance of land rights, and respect for property rights, has now been firmly established.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Cost of doing business</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The cost of such bottlenecks is increasingly becoming clear. Registering land and businesses is an extremely time consuming and costly exercise in India, more so in West Bengal. Studies like the “Doing Business” report brought out by the World Bank, has estimated that to register a property or business in Kolkata, it could take anything between 100 to over 250 days, while in some other parts of the country it takes between 20 to 40 days. Eliminating these unnecessary and cumbersome procedures, would not only greatly reduce delays, and reduce corruption, but also attract investment and improve efficiency.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Without a basic change the philosophy of governance that looked at the population with degree of suspicion, and attempted to restrain them with the proverbial red tape. In such a situation, corruption was a necessary corollary as people grasped at anything to escape the stranglehold of that red tape. On the other hand, some people close to the government agencies found an economic opportunity in the bureaucratic web that ensnared the citizen.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Therefore, unless Mamata Banerjee is able to adopt her good governance philosophy which will truly hold the common citizen at the centre of attention, and simplify and eliminate the maze of procedures that obstruct every step the people may take, real change in governance will not be possible.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The new Chief Minister and her cabinet may want to set an example, they may attend office on time, work efficiently, and be personally incorruptible, but without change in the procedures reducing scope for administrative arbitrariness and discretion, the common man will remain a hostage in the hand of the different government agencies.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Man does not live by bread alone! Over the past five years, West Bengal experienced a relatively high economic growth of 12-14% in per capita state domestic product. Yet, the Left Front government lost the election by a huge margin, primarily because of the sense of injustice that prevailed among the people. With better economic performance, the UPA2 was reelected at the national level, and the Congress performed much better in 2009, than in 2004. In contrast, the ruling Congress party in Assam was reelected despite the sharp fall in growth rate from 13% to 7% in the last few years, but the improved prospect of peace made the people reelect the party with a bigger margin. A much better industrial growth did not assure the re-election of DMK led coalition, rather the spectre of corruption and the prevailing sense of injustice decimated the ruling party in the recent election in Tamil Nadu.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Devolving political power</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mamata Banerjee has also promised to take substantive steps to tackle two of the hotspots in the states, the Maoists in the jangalmahal areas in the western parts of the state, and the Gorkha agitation in Darjeeling. She wants to engage in a dialogue, and holds the promise of a special development package to people in these areas.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">But anyone who has followed various insurgency and separatist movements in different parts of the country knows that throwing money to buy peace rarely works. What is needed is a genuine political empowerment at the grassroots.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Perhaps it is not a coincidence that she dreamt of turning the hills of Darjeeling in to Switzerland. But Switzerland does not only offer scenic beauty and modern living, but also provides the most vigorous example of bottom-up democracy. The Swiss provide a federal model where most of the powers are held at the local and cantonal level, and the national authorities are largely dependent on what flows from the lower and local levels of the community to the top. And unlike most of Europe, this bottom-up participatory democracy in Switzerland has been able to nurture a country out of the linguistic, religious and ethnic diversities. The peace and prosperity in Switzerland is a consequence of it truly devolved federal polity.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Left Front heralded the panchayat system in rural Bengal as a means to help the party control the population. Mamata Banejree has to make the panchayat truly represent the people, rather than any political party.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mamata Banerjee may do really well to look more closely at the Swiss model of bottom-up democracy which empowers citizens, and recognizes their dignity and freedom, and adapt these to her philosophy of governance, particularly with regards to the diversities in the jangalmahal and Darjeeling. Such an approach will also significantly reduce the financial stress being experienced by the state government.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Restoring fiscal health</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">It is widely acknowledged that the fiscal condition of West Bengal is rather grim. The high economic growth over the past five years has not helped expand the tax base. Mamata Banerjee expects the centre to help her government through the fiscal difficulties. But it is here that she may need a real change in approach.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Development that she has promised is unlikely to come increasing “development expenditure”. India provides a stark example of ballooning development expenditure over the past decades, but very little real development changing lives of people at the grassroots. And this is not just about corruption.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Over a century ago, Tagore had noted from his various attempts to promote village development that the real challenge was to change the mindset of the people, to make them believe in themselves and therefore initiate the much needed change themselves. Tagore realized quite the hard way that despite his good intentions, and willingness to spend money to try and help the villagers, if the people didn’t have the self-belief they would not be able to seize the opportunities that may come their way.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Over the past three decades, with the Left Front completely dominating almost all spheres of life, particularly in rural Bengal, changing the mindset would be biggest challenge. In such a situation, throwing more money to usher in development may make breed even more dependence, rather than independence and self-confidence.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Politically, most people have very little idea of fiscal deficit, or tax codes or rates. Ordinary people primarily see the impact of economic policies either through price rise and inflation, or lack of economic opportunities.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The priority for the new government should be to cut the procedural red tape, and deregulate, so that supply of goods and services may increase. This would partly reduce the inflationary pressure. Secondly, the government needs to remove the economic regulations and bottlenecks that have strangulated the capacity of people to seek new economic opportunities. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">These two strategies would not only open new frontiers for the people to explore new economic opportunities, but also significantly reduce the demand for government expenditure. With this fiscal consolidation, Mamata Banerjee’s government would be able to key enablers of development, law and order, and basic infrastructure.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">It is always very tempting for the people’s representatives, particularly when the sit on the treasury benches to believe that they could solve all the problems if only they had the money. There can’t be a bigger political fallacy. Apart from economic inefficiencies ingrained in this approach, it also opens the door for huge corruption. Politically, however, even in the best case scenario of government led delivery of development, there is no way for the government will be able to keep pace with the spiraling expectation of the people. It is no coincidence that promises of free electricity and water, soon transforms in to colour television sets and computers, yet the ruling parties, more often than not, are humbled at the next electoral outing. The defeat of the DMK in Tamil Nadu election 2011, despite delivering the colour television sets over the past 5 years, provides sombre reminder that electoral freebees do assure political power.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">It is this mindset that Mamata Banerjee would need to change among her MLAs and ministers. If she can do that, the state’s fiscal health will recover quite fast.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Economic opportunities</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The new government has promised to develop economic clusters to promote opportunities for development and growth. But historically, clusters have evolved locally out of necessity when the economic environment allowed it to grow. Devolving decision making to municipalities, wards and panchayats, and removing zoning restrictions, economic clusters would grow on its own without any state assistance.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Increasingly, across the world, economic wellbeing is a function of education and skill of the workforce, as well their health. In both these critical areas, West Bengal has fallen steadily behind many other states. There are fewer colleges, universities and technical institutes in Bengal today, than many other parts of the country. Availability of hospital beds as a proportion of the population is also significantly lower in Bengal than desirable. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Mamata Banerjee has promised to build educational and health infrastructure across the state. But given the fiscal situation of the state, this may neither be easy nor quick. While she focuses on stabilizing the fiscal situation, and gradually try to build the educational and health infrastructure, she could very easily allow private investment in these two critical areas. Given the high demand for education and health services, it should be possible to attract investment in these areas. One gets a glimpse of the scale of this latent demand for education from the number of coaching institutes, computer training and English learning centres that have sprouted across the state. Rather than shacking legitimate investment in these urgent areas, her government should focus on instances of fraudulent practices, and allow competition between private and public service providers to stimulate better quality of service.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A political advantage of this approach is that entrenched vested interests in the existing public sector would not feel immediately threatened by the change. Once the competition sets in they will see the inevitable logic of perform or perish.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">For instance, the health insurance for the poor of the kind implemented in Andhra Pradesh could go a long way in improving access to health care services in Bengal. The poor are insured by the government, and the patients could go to any of the health care facilities, public or private, and get treated, with the insurance companies reimbursing the hospitals.</span><b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></b><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Politics of Mamata Banerjee</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">She has repeatedly said that she is not against leftist ideology, but against the bogus leaders of the left, particularly the CPI(M). The communist party in India is truly unique in the world. It is their willingness to work within the constitutional democratic framework of India, yet continuing to hold Karx Marx, Vladmir Lenin, Joseph Stalin as their icons, that make Indian communists a very rare breed. They coined the term “democratic centralization” in an attempt to explain the contradiction. Two decades after the fall of the communist empire in Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, the Indian communists continue to claim that the ideal of a socialist revolution under the leadership of the communist party is a valid one. The collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic was a consequence of failure to genuinely apply those ideals by the communist party, rather than any flaw in those ideals.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The economic stagnation coupled with political arrogance on display during the three decades of Left Front rule in Bengal, was not just a failure of the leadership, but a consequence of the communist ideology – economic scarcity, perpetuation of poverty and institutionalization of fear in an attempt to keep a lid on the aspirations of the people. These characteristics are the hallmark of all communist countries in the world, only in Bengal, this was legitimized through successive electoral victories.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">But in a democratic polity, ideological purity is not virtue if it adversely affects political performance. Once the prevailing sense of injustice reached a critical mass in the aftermath of the violence in Singur and Nandigram, politics of fear was no longer sufficient to keep the CPI(M)’s hold on power. And Mamata Banerjee seized on this sense of injustice, and found the opportunity to revive her political career, emerging as a credible alternative to the Left Front.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">She is also a rare politician in India, who is not tainted by any scam nor embroiled in any corruption case, despite being in politics for over three decades. While her obviously simple life style has added to her political credibility, but this is not sufficient to keep her political stock high, as her predecessor as the Chief Minister may clearly vouch. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In the democratic political arena that is increasingly competitive, Mamata Banerjee has been the first one to acknowledge the need for performance. She would do well not to get bogged down by any political ideology that may adversely affect the performance of her government. That would open a whole range of policy options for her to try out from, in search of ways to improve the performance of her government. Today, only she can unlock the unlimited potential for change.<b> </b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><b>Ushering in change</b> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">India has changed significantly in the past 20 years. The economy has grown, poverty has been falling, and India is seen to be capable of seeking new opportunities that a globalizing world provides. The success of the IT industry has not only changed the perception of India abroad, but also given a new confidence to Indians. It is not a coincidence that this economic transformation is taking place while the politics has fragmented and become increasingly competitive. The diminishing dominance of the Congress played a significant role in ushering in changes in policy that improved economic performance.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Almost every state in India has witnessed a growing intensity of political competition. The increased political competition, forced political leaders to think of performance of their government, and explore policy options that could help them deliver, and improve their chances of re-election. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Bengal clearly missed out on the political churning experienced in the rest of the country, and consequently missed out on the economic changes increasingly visible elsewhere in the country. The lack of political competition in Bengal had ensured that Left Front could win seven consecutive elections to the state assembly. This time there was a dramatic change in the political landscape. With the first credible political challenge posed by Mamata Banerjee, people in Bengal seized the possibility of change, and the political tide turned against the Left Front. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Whether Mamata Banerjee’s government is able to bring about the change she has promised only time will tell. But one change that has already taken place - citizens of Bengal are much more politically empowered, having brought about this dramatic change in their political space. And the voters may cherish their new found political voice, and could be ready to change again if Mamata Banerjee’s government fails to live up to their expectations.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">A century ago, Gopal Krishna Gokhale had famously said that what Bengal thinks today, India thinks tomorrow. Today, Bengal has steadily slipped from that pedestal. Mamata Banerjee has promised to restore Bengal lost glory. But she has to contend with two resources that are constantly running out, time and money. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Yet, change is possible. Some of the steps outlined above do not require her to provide the money, and could deliver visible results in a relatively short time. Performance would help build the political capital necessary to undertake some of the major structural and governance reforms. The politician in Mamata Banerjee will be the first one to recognize the value of political capital. The political entrepreneur in her should seize the small window of opportunity and lay the foundation for fundamental change, take the small but immediate steps towards a new Bengal. The rest will be history. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">And if she fails, Mamata Banerjee would become history. Reminding us once again of the immortal line of the Bengali author Syed Mustafa Ali, “The same tradition has continued!” And the tragedy of Bengal may continue.</span>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-86861499337587279352010-12-10T00:04:00.000+05:302011-09-10T00:11:40.910+05:30Prospect of liberal politics in India today - Part 2<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The verdict, in the recent assembly election in the state of
Bihar, has attracted a lot of interest across India.
The ruling coalition of Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), and Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP), won a record 85% of the seats, 206 seats in a house of 243. Did this
huge margin of victory, signify a major shift in Indian politics? Is the
political agenda in India
being reshaped? What does this election really tell us about the future
political direction in India? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In Part 1, I look at the implication and impact of the Bihar assembly election, <a href="http://barunsmitra.blogspot.com/2010/12/prospect-of-liberal-politics-in-india.html">here</a>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In this the second part of the two part article, I try to look back at Indian politics, attempt to identify the various strands that dominated politics at one point in time or another - language, region, religion, caste, and find that there is a diminishing political return from various shades of identity politics that has set in. With identity politics in decline, could political ideology find a legitimate space in India?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Part 2: <b>Evolution of Politics in India</b> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the first 15 years after Independence,
politics was dominated by the identity of languages, and the states were
reorganized along broadly linguistic lines. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the next 15 years, poverty became the dominant element of
political discourse, cutting across various social fracture lines, and
encompassing different identities. During this phase, with nationalization of
major industries such as banks, energy and oil, textile, etc, India
entered a decidedly socialist era. But increased economic control, along with
the first oil price shock, led inevitably to political discontent. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Consequently, in the historic election in the aftermath of
the ‘Emergency’, in 1977, the INC lost power at the national level for the
first time. As the world watched, India
became the first major democracy in a developing country to undergo
constitutional transfer of power from one party to another. This was an event
of enormous political significance, empowering people, and entrenching
democracy. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But the parties that formed the new government, pursued the
socialistic economic vision with even greater rigour, and with the second oil
price shock of 1979, inflation touched 20% per annum, and the fate of the first
non-Congress government in Delhi
was sealed. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the 1980s, while the INC regained power, and took some
tentative steps to reform the economy, the country was almost torn apart by
various sectarian movements. Bolstered by socialistic attempt to re-distribute
wealth, various political parties experimented with identity politics of caste,
religion, and region, in the hope of capturing the organs of the state. The
separatist movements in Punjab and Assam
gathered steam. A lot of blood was spilled throughout the 1980s, including the
assassination of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At the same time, various caste groups attempted to organize
and mobilize politically, particularly in north India.
In an attempt to politically consolidate some of the backward castes, a
sweeping policy of reservation or affirmative action was proposed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
On the other hand, another kind of identity politics raised
its head. Hindu fundamentalists were already apprehensive of appeasement of
religious minorities such as Muslims, for electoral gain by the INC. Now the
same forces became concerned about social fragmentation on caste lines, and
sought to unite the Hindu majority of India
in to a cogent political force. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
By the 1990s, while the separatists and secessionist
movements had by and large been controlled, the caste and religious polarization
completely fragmented Indian polity. This necessarily ushered in a new era of
coalition politics, and for the first time, Indian politics became really
competitive, for the first time. With people experiencing diverse political
options, routinely threw out the ruling side. This has been described as the
anti-incumbency syndrome. A point came, when a sitting legislator had barely
30% chance of getting re-elected. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Indian politics was again transformed. For the first time
political parties sensed an opportunity to gain power by winning election, and
by the same token feared the very real danger of losing power as well. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is in this tumultuous political environment of the 1990s,
when political uncertainty prevailed, that India
began to reform her economy in a big way. This defied conventional wisdom that
political uncertainty will lead to an uncertain economic outlook. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is precisely this political uncertainty which made the
political leaders and parties look for policies to improve governance and the
economic performance, in the hope of winning the favour of the voters. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Policies became a subject of discourse out of sheer
political necessity in an extremely competitive political environment. Just as
competition improves the economic efficiency, political competition sustained
the search for policies that might improve the prospect of getting re-elected. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As India’s
economic growth increased gradually from 6% in the 1990s, to 8% and then 9% in
the mid-2000s, politics of performance became a significant factor in
elections. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The second significant consequence of increased political
competition was the diminishing returns of earlier identity politics. While
politicians tasted power riding their favourite identity, be it caste or
religion, the voters began to relish the prospect of political competition, and
explore ways to force the political parties to perform. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The BSP, the party of the most oppressed castes, had made
its mark on Indian politics by rabidly polarizing caste opinon, and mobilizing
and consolidating its targeted caste groups. It came close to political power
in UP, propelled by narrow identity of its caste base. Yet, it had to rely on
the support of other parties representing other caste groups, in order to
cobble up the coalition with necessary numbers in the legislature. These
experiments continued throughout the late 1990s and early 2000s, and each time
such coalition of expediency was quite short lived. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is then, that the BSP, the party of extremely narrowly
defined caste groups, realized the need to broad base its political appeal if
it had to have any realistic chance of securing political power in UP. With no
caste group enjoying more than 20% share of the population, there was little
possibility of any party being able to secure political power on its own. For
over two years, BSP went about transforming itself from the party of the
Dalits, to the party of all, particularly the poor, appealing to virtually
every section of Indian society, caste and religions. While the other major
parties in UP sought to consolidate their voter base, BSP was the only one that
attempted to expand its base to other groups. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In the UP assembly election of 2007, BSP reaped the benefit
broad basing its appeal. Defying all predictions, it won the assembly election
on its own, and gained political power in India’s
largest state. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
After 1977, when INC lost the national election for the
first time, and the1990s, when Indian politics became truly competitive, the UP
assembly election, of 2007, is perhaps the most politically significant event
in India. For
it showed the limits of identity politics, and established the political reason
for broad basing politics. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Real significance of </b><b>Bihar</b><b>
election of 2010 </b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The assembly election in Bihar, in
2005, also exposed the limits of identity politics. For 15 years, RJD leader
Lalu Prasad enjoyed unquestioned political authority in the state. Yet, he
failed to grasp the political reality. While he tried to consolidate his
traditional support base, but his almost complete failure to maintain basic law
and order, and governance, meant that his voters were growing increasingly
dissatisfied. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One of the biggest advantage of the first past the post
election system is that even a small shift in support base can bring in big
electoral dividend in terms of seats. This greatly increases the prospect of
new political entrants to make their mark. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2005, in Bihar, as RJD’s political
fortune was fraying, its main coalition partners, the INC, and another local
party, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), moved away. As his vote base got divided, the
coalition of JD(U) and BJP gained the upper hand, and captured political power.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The election in Bihar, in 2010, only
reconfirms the basic thrust of this analysis. Increased political competition,
inevitably diminishes the political returns of identity politics as voters
begin to relish the greater range of political choices. Consequently, parties
are forced to look at ways of improving their performance in governance. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Indians typically have multiple identities in terms of
caste, language, religion and region, and the voters are increasingly aware of
the advantage of switching their identity to take political advantage of the
situation. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is a fundamental lesson which Mr Kumar, the leader of
JD(U) and BJP coalition in Bihar took to heart.
Realising the fickleness of identity politics, he opted to improve governance
as a way to appeal to broad section of voters beyond any particular identity.
He moderated the caste based appeal of many in his own party, and convinced his
coalition partner, the BJP, to moderate their Hindu religious agenda. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At the same time, since identity loyalties are not
permanent, as his predecessor from RJD had learned at a high political cost, Mr
Kumar embarked on basic governance issues. This allowed his coalition to
increase their vote share by only 5%, getting about 39% of the vote in 2010
election, but ending up winning 85% of the seats. The major opposition combine
of RJD and LJP, secured 25% of the votes, but only 10% of the seats. The INC,
which increased its votes by 2% to 8%, won just 4 seats in 2010, compared to 9
seats in 2009.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Prospect for Liberal Politics in </b><b>India</b><b>
</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With identity politics running out of steam, and
distributive politics failing to keep up with the rapidly rising aspiration of
Indians today, the need for governance and development have clearly emerged on
the political agenda. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is the first time in the 60 years of Indian democracy,
that the prospect of policies that boost performance of government and the
economic sectors are likely to get prime attention, out of sheer necessity of
political survival in the extremely competitive world of Indian politics. This
implies that policies would have to be formulated with much greater care, and these
would have to be politically viable. And since the ordinary voter is not a
policy expert, the only way to get the message out to the voter is by narrating
the policy proposals to the public through the filter of political ideologies. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Again, for the first time in the history of democratic India,
political parties have the need to adopt a coherent ideology in order to
explain the intricacies of policies to its voters. So far, Indian politics have
been largely devoid of ideology. All parties tended to adopt the dominant
ideology of the day, since their distinctive feature was identity. Ideology was
only seen as a providing a veneer to mask the base identities to which the
political parties traditionally appealed to. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But with increasing significance of political performance
for survival of political parties, policies are coming to the centre stage. To
make policies politically accessible to mass audiences, political ideology will
necessarily have to be developed. With diminishing returns from identity politics,
political ideology will emerge from the shadows to the forefront. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For liberals in India,
this is a once in a life time opportunity. For all these years, liberals were
devoted to their political ideals, but found very few takers. The liberals were
either swepat away by identity politics of one kind or the other, or their
ideological roots were seen as politically irrelevant, in an environment where
ideologies were not needed to differentiate different political parties. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Today, with the demise of identity politics, and rise of the
need for political ideology to distinguish themselves from one another, the
political environment seems opportune for a liberal renaissance in India.
Are the Indian liberals ready to seize their moment under the Indian sky! </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is the real significance of the Bihar
assembly election. It has reconfirmed the focus on governance that had emerged
over the past decade, while also confirming the limits of identity politics. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Indian democracy has always been very vocal, voluble and
full of colour. Yet, one of the most startling features of democracy in India
has been the near complete consensus on the core political beliefs of the day,
among most of the political parties. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Over the past century, as political freedom expanded around
the world, so too did economic freedom. Almost all the rich countries of today
are democracies. While the poor and developing countries are not typically
characterized by their weak democratic political institutions. India
has been a proud exception to that narrative. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
India
retained her constitutional democratic republican character right through the
past six decades. But for the first time, with political competition
facilitating an environment for economic growth and improved governance, out of
sheer political necessity, the prospect of India
actually joining the ranks of those countries that are economically free,
politically democratic, and enjoying the highest standards of life seem to be a
distinct possibility. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt;">Indian liberals have their ideology, can they rise
to shape the political destiny of </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt;">India</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt;"> in the coming decades? The liberals have their
task clear cut, history is confirming their path, future is beckoning them, but
they need to be able to rise to the occasion. </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-73931961050688891882010-12-07T23:47:00.000+05:302011-09-10T00:12:09.488+05:30Prospect of liberal politics in India today - Part 1<div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: inherit;">
<span style="font-size: small;">The verdict, in the Bihar state assembly election held in November 2010, has attracted a lot of interest across India.
The ruling coalition of Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), and Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP), won a record 85% of the seats, 206 seats in a house of 243. Did this
huge margin of victory, signify a major shift in Indian politics? Is the
political agenda in India
being reshaped? What does this election really tell us about the future
political direction in India? I attempt to answer some of these questions in this two-part article. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">In this the first part, I analyse at the political scene in Bihar. And in the second part, I try to assess the direction Indian politics may take in the coming years, <a href="http://barunsmitra.blogspot.com/2011/09/prospect-of-liberal-politics-in-india.html">here</a>.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Part 1: <b>Lessons from the </b><b>Bihar</b><b> assembly election of 2010</b></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b> </b></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>Political configuration in Bihar 2010 </b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">This was the first major state to hold an election, since
the general election to the national parliament (Lok Sabha) held in the summer
of 2009. Naturally, there was a lot of interest to understand whether the
verdict will be relevant only locally, or would it have national significance.
Next year, 2011, as many as 5 or 6 states are expected to go to the polls to
elect their legislators. So there was a high level of interest in the Bihar
election, and speculation on the possible political fall out in the coming
round of elections, and also on the probable impact on the political dynamics
at the national level. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Secondly, the general expectation, and the opinion polls,
had all indicated that the ruling coalition of JD(U), and BJP, will be
re-elected. What was uncertain was the margin of victory. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Thirdly, Bihar is a state where caste
based identity politics had struck deep roots. Almost all the major political
parties in the state have come to rely upon the core caste based support it
has. But in this election, there was a general consensus that issues of
development - law and order, roads, electricity, employment, - were at the
forefront during the campaign. So, there was a great deal of interest to see if
the election really tilted the balance in favour of the development agenda. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Then there were other lesser themes running through this two
month long election schedule. Given that most people expected the ruling
coalition to win, there was an interest to see which of the two parties in the
coalition would fare better. To keep the coalition together, BJP had to soft
pedal its Hindu religious agenda. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">There was also an interest to know how the Rashtriya Janata
Dal (RJD), the party led by Lalu Prasad Yadav, who along with his wife, had
ruled Bihar continuously between 1990 and 2005, through three legislative
terms. The question was would the social coalition of Dalits (among the most
oppressed castes), the Yadavs (among the backward castes) and the Muslims, that
had seen the RJD through for 15 years, will continue to hold or dissipate. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">The Indian National Congress (INC), the principal party in
the national coalition government in Delhi,
was seeking to make a comeback in the two major Hindi speaking states of the
north – Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Over the past 30 years,
INC had slowly but steadily lost its support base in these two major states.
But INC had done surprisingly well in the UP in the 2009 general election to
national Parliament, and so there was speculation that perhaps the party had
turned a corner, and might improve its position in Bihar. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Finally, among the other major parties, there was the
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which has emerged at the national level over the
past two decades. The BSP now rules the largest state in India,
Uttar Pradesh, having won the election to the state assembly in 2007. The BSP
primarily represented the Dalits, which constitute about 20% of India’s
population. But it changed its political strategy in prior to 2007, to include
the poor, the religious minorities, and the disadvantaged among different
social segments, and had built an unique rainbow coalition, which had propelled
it to power on its own, in UP. So there was an interest to see if the BSP with
its recent successes will have any impact in Bihar. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b>The past and the present in </b><b>Bihar</b><b>
</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Bihar is a major state in India,
lying on the gangetic plains. It is politically a very significant state too.
Yet, economically and socially, Bihar ranks among the
lowest in India,
in per capita income, or life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy, and many
other developmental indicators. Over the past twenty-five years, there was a
general sense, that Bihar moves only in one direction,
which is, downwards, falling further behind the rest of the country. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Bihar had produced many leaders of
national prominence during the decades of India’s
struggle for Independence. The
first President of India, Dr Rajendra Prasad, hailed from Bihar.
In the first three decades after Independence
in 1947, Bihar had a major role in shaping the social
and political agenda of the country. During 1975-77, Indian democracy was under
a cloud under the ‘Emergency’ rule of Mrs Indira Gandhi, when many
constitutional rights and freedoms were suspended, Bihar
was at the forefront of the movement to restore democracy in the country. Many
of the current generation of political leaders are a product of that national
movement. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Yet, over the next three decades, Bihar
had lost its political prominence. Bihar had become
synonymous with the worst of India’s
social and political life. Identity politics of caste and religion fragmented
the social fabric. Corruption and crime sky rocketed. Some of the worst forms
of caste oppression and violence were witnessed in Bihar.
Parts of the state were under the grip of extreme left wing forces. In other
parts, mafia dons ruled their own fiefdom with impunity. Economic development
had come to halt. Kidnapping had emerged as the most lucrative business.
People, rich and poor, migrated out of the state in search of employment and
safety. People of Bihar seemed to have lost their self-confidence
and their pride. That was 2005. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">The fifteen year rule of the RJD led coalition, in Bihar
came to an end in 2005. Mr Nitish Kumar of the JD(U), formed a coalition
government with the BJP. The soft spoken Mr Kumar was a study in contrast to the
flamboyant Mr Prasad. With this election victory, people of Bihar
seems to have confirmed their faith in Mr Kumar and his coalition. In return,
Mr Kumar seems to have helped people regain their pride to be a resident of Bihar. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Socially and economically, Bihar
still has a long way to go. But there are a few things that the ruling
coalition seems to have done in the past few years that have clearly impressed
the people. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">The most visible change was in restoration of law and order.
Kidnappings declined dramatically. For the first time in years, people felt a
degree of security. Even many parts of Patna,
the capital city on the Ganges, particularly the river
front had been abandoned to the criminals and bootleggers. Today, families with
children feel safe to spend their afternoon and evening on the banks. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Apparently, the government had clearly instructed the police
not to be swayed by any extraneous influence, but enforce the law. It is
believed that about 50,000 suspected criminals were locked up.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">The Economist, the international weekly magazine, reported
on the changes in Bihar. Where there were no roads, now
there were pot holes, recognizing the major effort of the state government to
rebuild the roads and bridges. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Another popular step seems to have been the effort to
promote education among girls. Hundreds of thousands of bicycles were
distributed among girls who continued their education to the high school level.
This step alone was credited with reducing the drop out rate among girls by
about 25%. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">In an effort to promote greater political participation
among women, the state government also reserved half the seats in village
councils, the third tier of electoral democracy in India,
to women. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">And women did participate in a major way during the recent
election. According to Election Commission of India, 10% more women voted than
men, when the overall voter turn out is estimated at about 54%. The turn out
was 6% more than the number of people who voted in 2009 during the
Parliamentary election. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">In general, economic growth rate in Bihar
has been averaging over 10%, higher than the national rate, for the past few
years. This has been primarily driven by government expenditure on
infrastructure. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">While there has been a visible change in the ground situation
in Bihar, it would be incorrect to assume that the bold
efforts of the ruling coalition to improve governance had been the only factor
that is responsible for its electoral success in 2010. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Development was clearly on the political agenda in Bihar
as never before. But Mr Kumar also had undertaken a new form of social
engineering. He promoted special welfare measures for two segments of the caste
cauldron, in an attempt to create new sense of identities. Traditionally,
social welfare programmes for the oppressed and underprivileged castes were
captured by the more advanced segments within these sections. So Mr Kumar
initiated special welfare programmes for the most backward among the Dalits
(the Maha Dalits). He did the same for the most backward of castes (MBC) from
among the other backward castes (the OBC). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">In addition, Mr Kumar ensured that his coalition partner,
the BJP, did not pursue the hardline Hindu agenda that alienates other
religious groups, particularly the Muslims. Some of the more strident Hindu
voices of the BJP, including the Chief Minister of Gujart, Narendra Modi, were
not invited to campaign for the party. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">These factors helped the ruling coalition to not only to
consolidate their traditional social base, but also move break the core support
base of the opposition as well. It prevented polarization of opinion among
religious ground. And it prevented the consolidation of traditional caste
support base in favour of the opposition. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: small;">Does this mean that identity politics continues to have a
place even while developmental issues are emerging on the political horizon? To
understand this question, one has to look back at the evolution of the Indian
political scene over the past 60 years. </span></div>
Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-76472117001894772382010-12-07T12:31:00.001+05:302011-09-10T00:14:14.987+05:30Save the tiger from those who love it<div>
The summit in St Petersburg focusing on the plight of the tiger was the first international summit of its kind, though similar in content to the new Global Tiger Initiative launched by the World Bank in 2010 itself. Few of the tigers who roamed in the wild in the past remain that way at present, and many of the rest are in captivity. The greatest threat is the loss of habitat and man animal conflict. The tiger is a much valuable animal for human beings for parts like bones and skin. Environmental activists are busy blaming human beings for the problems of conservation without proposing practical solutions. My article titled "Save the tiger from those who love it" was published in The Financial Express on 7th December 2010.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Russia recently hosted a summit in St Petersburg to focus attention on the plight of the tiger in the wild. This is the first international summit of this kind, where heads of states of Russia, China, Bangladesh and some of the other range countries gathered to discuss the fate of the tiger. The summit follows the new Global Tiger Initiative launched by the World Bank earlier in the year. The bottle was new, but the content was the same old stale stuff!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It is believed that around 1,00,000, tigers roamed in the wild across 25 countries at the turn of the 1900. Today, barely 3,000 of them are in the wild. Another 10-15,000 are in captivity. The wild tiger, facing the prospect of extinction for the past 40 years, has seen a barrage of activism and funding. The Project Tiger was launched in the 1970s, then the World Bank’s Global Environment Facility directed more funds towards forestry and conservation, since the early 1990s. Over the years, innumerable conferences have been held and cash promised but nothing has helped the tiger yet. The summiteers in St Petersburg kept with that tradition, promising $350 million over the next few years, though more staunch environmentalists complained that barely 10% of this money is really new.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The delegates once again promised to work together to improve law enforcement so that the most profitable aspect, the smuggling of tigers parts, can be eliminated. They reaffirmed the belief that poaching of tigers poses the single biggest threat to wild tiger population, largely from India, which has half the wild tigers of the world today, to China, which has almost none, but where there is a demand for tiger body parts.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The biggest threat to the tiger comes from loss of habitat and man-animal conflict. Each year, a couple of hundred people die from wildlife attacks, mostly tigers, leopards and elephants. This often leads to revenge killings. On the other hand, poaching is estimated to constitute just about 25% of the threat to the tiger.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The most practical solution to saving tigers is allowing human beings some sense of property over them. Almost every species that brings any economic benefit to humans is generally nurtured and preserved: the humble cow is not facing extinction, despite the massive economic exploitation.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The tiger can also be as valuable. In the wild, it can attract tourists, nature lovers and even hunters, and generate revenue that can compensate for its keep. But this will only happen if the people living in its vicinity have some form of property right and ownership over the animal and its habitat, and can legitimately claim a share of profits.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
A dead tiger is equally valuable for its skins and bones. And since the tiger breeds easily, even in captivity, it could be possible to breed them to meet the demand, again generating economic benefits. Alligator farming generates $20 million annually in the American state of Louisiana alone.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Demand for tiger parts in China could provide a big economic advantage and secure the future of the tiger in the wild. India is currently allocating about $20,000 per tiger per year and the money is not helping the tiger. Instead, a tiger could potentially earn 4 to 5 times as much and save itself from extinction.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The farmed or ranched animals could take the pressure off their wild cousins. And the wild ones could then become valuable as well for tourists and environmentalists.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Activists, and their political allies, don’t pursue these solutions; they are more interested in blaming humans as the problem. So they recommend clearing humans from tiger habitat areas.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Focusing on the problem creates an illusion for green summiteers that they are seriously engaged. It’s this illusive perception that helps political leaders consolidate their power in the name of protecting tiger. After all, in contrast to an ever demanding populace in a democracy, tigers make no demands. A blank check, that is a dream of all political leaders. But times are changing. Even the poorest forest dwellers in India are becoming aware of their citizenship in a democracy. They are demanding a way out of grinding poverty. They are voting for their rights. They are many times more numerous than the tiger wallahs!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
At St Petersburg, delegates recognised that 40 years of conservation efforts to protect the tiger have failed, yet went on to promise more of the same. Pitting people, who live in close proximity to wild animals, against the animals. In such a conflict, the animals stand not a chance. It is time to realise that forests and wildlife are renewable resources. If the people are able to profit from those resources, then they will go out of their way to nurture and grow those resources. It is time to harness the power of commerce for the cause of conservation of tigers and its habitat. There is no need to wait for the delegates in St Petersburg to show the way.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Just as the world economy is trying to claw its way out of trouble on the basis of growing demand in developing countries, so too the tiger in the wild could be saved precisely because there is a demand for it, both dead and alive. Let the tiger earn its stripes! </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-88233027715876143842010-12-02T13:00:00.009+05:302010-12-02T16:33:38.230+05:30Climate of Politics vs Economics of Development<div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In this article, I look at the political dimension of various environmental concerns. This is particularly relevant since the annual meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), opened in Cancun, Mexico, this week. Last week, the first global summit on tiger conservation was held in St. Petersburg, Russia. What is common to such diverse environmental agendas is that they offer enormous opportunity to political leaders to escape accountability. After all, if one claims to speak on behalf of the tigers, the animals won't make any demand. Likewise, if one claims to speak of protecting the interest of future generations 50 or 100 years later, the leaders can be sure that the future generations will not be able to hold them politically accountable for any misdeed. Such agendas tend to be political blank cheques! Please read and comment.<br />
<br />
<b>Can the climate save the tiger!</b> <br />
<br />
This week, the annual summit organized under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is taking place in Cancun, Mexico. But after the collapse of the talks in Copenhagen last December, and the continuing economic turmoil in many parts of the world, not many are expecting any radical outcome. <br />
<br />
The summiteers in Cancun may want to follow another meeting that was held in St Petersburg, last week. Russia hosted a summit to focus attention on the plight of the tiger in the wild, mostly in Asia, and Siberia, called the International Tiger Conservation Forum, organised under the auspices of the Global Tiger Initiative of the World Bank.<br />
<br />
<b>Economics of Tiger</b><br />
<br />
The wild tiger has been facing the prospect of extinction for the past 40 years. Various initiatives such as Project Tiger were launched in early 1970s. Trade in tiger parts has been banned since 1975, (for Siberian tiger in 1987). Nearly two decades ago, the World Bank had launched the Global Environment Facility, a fund which was to have been used, among others, to help develop sustainable ecology in villages and reduce the human pressure on the forest and wildlife. Today, in India, many of the village eco-development committees are either non-existent or defunct. <br />
<br />
India, which is home to about half of world’s tiger population, ranging between 1200 to 1500, now has nearly 40 forests areas are declared as tiger reserves. Thousands of villages dot these so-called tiger havens, where neither the tiger nor the people feel safe. In any such conflict between man and animal, where human toll ranges in a few hundred each year, the animal will necessarily lose out. <br />
<br />
While participants gathered in Russia, in Chandrapur village in the western Indian state of Maharashtra, a tiger was found dead, and officials tallied the number of people killed, presumably by tigers, in the district to 11 this year. A senior official in Madhya Pradesh estimated that there were over 700 villages in the different tiger reserves in the central Indian state, but about 100 villages are really critical, located in the heart of the tiger territories, and the people need to be moved and resettled elsewhere. For just this task, the bill could be around $600 million. <br />
<br />
The summiteers in St Petersburg discussed the threat to tiger, promised $350 million over the next few years, and environmentalists complained that barely 10% of this is new money.<br />
<br />
It is this kind of hopeless mismatch between the ground realities and global discourse, which has only perpetuated the crisis, whether it is the tiger or the climate. Ironically, most of the environmental activists look at people as the problem, and fail to think of people as the possible solution as well. <br />
<br />
Almost every species that brings any economic benefit to the people are generally nurtured and preserved. The humble cow is not facing extinction, despite massive economic exploitation. Wilderness areas with tigers can attract tourists, nature lovers and hunters, and generate revenue. Particularly, if the people living in the vicinity have some form of property right and ownership in the animal, the habitat and can legitimately claim a share in the profits. It is estimated, that annually fishing and hunting generates economic activity in the range of $ 50 to 70 billion. <br />
<br />
A dead tiger is equally valuable for its skins and bones, for fashion and Chinese traditional medicine, respectively. Since the tiger breeds easily, even in captivity, it could be possible to breed them to meet the demand, again generating economic benefits. <br />
<br />
Alligator farming in just the state of Louisiana, in the US, generates $20 million annually. Rather than breeding tigers for commerce, the participants at St Petersburg promised stronger effort at enforcing prohibition, a policy that has not helped the cause.<br />
<br />
In addition, if trade is liberalized, there could be significant demand for tigers in zoos, private collectors,circuses and among a section of exotic animal owners. There is no reason for such a magnificent and valuable species to face the prospect of extinction from the wild, if only one practiced what is generally preached at every environmental summit – think globally, but act locally. Particularly, allow the local people the freedom to act, since they know their immediate environment much better than anyone else. <br />
<br />
But many environmental activists, and their political allies, are more interested in focusing on the problem, rather than practical solutions. Focusing on the problem creates an illusion for the various green summiteers that they are seriously engaged. And it’s this illusive perception that usually helps political leaders to consolidate their power. As for the solutions, if the problem were to be really solved, a whole range of activists and managers, who have thrived from the political patronage, will lose their bread and butter. <br />
<br />
Claiming to represent the tiger is an attempt to secure a political blank cheque. After all, tigers make no demand to the political leaders, unlike the increasingly demanding human voters.<br />
<br />
<b>Politics of Climate</b> <br />
<br />
The debate on climate change actually illustrates the same argument. A problem is proposed so far ahead in the future, typically 50 to 100 years, that political leadership across the world finds it very convenient to escape accountability, in the name of the future generations. After all, the future generations will never be able to hold the present leaders accountable. <br />
<br />
But if people’s present priorities are not met, the prospect of that political power turning out to be a mirage is quite real. The collapse of so many totalitarian and authoritarian political regimes in the past two decades is an illustration of that reality too.<br />
<br />
Like the tigers, the leaders face a practical problem today. Most people, particularly in poor countries, have many immediate problems to grapple with. For two billion people, daily survival is a top priority, and they cannot afford the luxury of considering future options, decades or generations down the road. <br />
<br />
So political leaders gathering in Cancun will have to again consider the option of either dealing with a distant future, or confront the realities of today. Whether planet’s climate will change 100 years later, and wreck havoc on the people is uncertain. But what is not in doubt is that at least 2 billion people around the world do not have access to clean and safe energy. In India alone, particularly in the villages, indoor air pollution from inefficient cooking stoves poses daily health hazard to millions, with an estimated annual death toll of around 500,000. <br />
<br />
Diseases may pose a problem in the future, but malaria poses a daily threat to hundreds of millions today. Tens of thousands of people die each year in rural areas of India and elsewhere, because the rural clinics do not have reliable electricity to run the refrigerators and preserve many medicines, vaccines and anti-venoms. <br />
<br />
Two decades ago, ozone depletion was considered to be a top threat, increasing the risk of skin cancer to people with lighter complexion. Under the auspices of the UN, the governments agreed to replace the CFCs, used in air-conditioning, refrigeration and various aerosol sprays, which were believed to be the culprits. Today, there is not much talk of ozone-hole, or skin cancer epidemic, but the HFCs that ultimately replaced the CFCs, are believed to be a far potent greenhouse gas, contributing to global warming. <br />
<br />
Over the past year, the political undertones of the global warming debate have been thoroughly exposed. The mis-pronouncements of the IPCC were not mere mistakes, but inevitable consequence of following the political lead. The political risk of miscalculation is very high, and which is why the political leaders are wary. The leaders of the rich countries, which typically funded or supported many of the environmental causes, no longer have the economic muscle to engage in their favourite pastime. <br />
<br />
This provides a golden opportunity for political leaders going to Cancun, to focus on the realities of today. Whether it is the pressure on forests which is threatening the habitat of the tiger, or the lack of access to safe and cheap energy, these problems of today, affect millions, and these are all manifestation of misguided regulations stifling opportunities for economic development. <br />
<br />
<b>Reality check</b><br />
<br />
With economic freedom, countries like China and India would be able to afford more efficient energy technologies, and reduce the load of pollution on the environment. After all, even with currently available technologies, energy intensity of Germany at 0.12 tons of oil equivalent for $1000 of GDP(2005), is less than one fifth of India’s at 0.68. Likewise, with economic development, and improvement in agricultural efficiencies, pressure on forest would decline, improved habitat will help revive the wildlife, including the tiger. It is agricultural productivity that helped China expand its man-made forest cover by over 2 million hectares, annually, from 2004 to 2008. In contrast, India added 0.3 million hectares annually, between 1997-2007, India. It is this kind of development that has allowed the US to reintroduce wildlife in to areas from where they had disappeared decades ago. <br />
<br />
Today, half the world population does not have access to reliable sources of energy. Ignoring that reality, and focusing on a problem that may or may not occur 50-100 years later and demanding a reduction in consumption today, will not be very politically palatable.<br />
<br />
If Copenhagen in 2009, exposed the limits of political power, Cancun could show the enormous possibilities if the political leadership of free countries focus more on the real concerns of today, rather than choosing to enter a battle like Don Quixote! That battle may be very exciting, but also completely futile. It is the economics of development that should determine the climate of politics, rather than the other way round. It is only with economic development, will environmental quality improve as well.</div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-78460568171063334362010-11-17T00:16:00.002+05:302010-11-17T00:26:13.911+05:30Corruption Trips Up India's Rise<div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The growing scandal over a newly built apartment tower in Mumbai, and the collapse of an old building in Delhi on the night of November 15, killing over 60 people reflect the peril that haunts Indians everyday - lack of secure property right, and strangulating regulation. The result is the pyramid of corruption that weighs heavily on citizens, and retards India's progress. This kind of systemic corruption cannot be dealt with by symbolic resignation of a minister. A shorter version of this article has been published in the <i><b><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704312504575617811205515640.html">Wall Street Journal</a>,</b></i> on 17 November 2010.</span></div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Just a week ago President Barack Obama received repeated applause from Indian Parliamentarians for saying that India has risen, not merely rising! In the week since, Indians have been witness to the scourge that has held India back, corruption, with a capital C. President Obama’s host in Mumbai, Mr Ashok Chavan, Chief Minister of Maharashtra, resigned due to serious allegations of malpractices surrounding an apartment tower in the heart of the city. <br />
<br />
That India’s rise could literally collapse, was tragically brought home when a building collapsed in Delhi on Monday night killing over 60 people. Collusion between unscrupulous builders and various officials allowed the addition of two more floors to an old three-storey building when the tragedy happened.<br />
<br />
In this past week, Mr Suresh Kalmadi, a member of parliament, and a senior office bearer of the Congress Party, resigned from his party post. Mr Kalmadi heads the much ridiculed Commonwealth Games organizing committee, for various acts of omission and commission. The allegations involve gross misappropriation of public money by a number of public and private bodies, operating under lax supervision, leading to deliberate delays, massive cost escalation, and last minute procurements at highly inflated price. The public games provided a golden opportunity for private loot to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.<br />
<br />
Just this Sunday, Mr A. Raja, the minister for telecommunication, resigned. Since 2007, there had been growing questions over his decision to allocate 2G spectrum slots on a first come, first serve basis to companies many of whom were not even in the telecommunication business, at very low prices. Some of these companies then sold their allotments within months to others at five to six times the original price. Some have not bothered to launch their services in the past few years. The 2G spectrum scandal, which notionally involves a loss of about US$ 30 billion, to the exchequer, is a consequence of arbitrary exercise of discretionary power by the minister. <br />
<br />
The winter session of Parliament which begun last week, have been continuously disrupted by opposition parties on three counts of corruption – the misappropriation of funds in Commonwealth Games, the loss to the exchequer from sale of 2G spectrum at a fraction of the market price, and the scandal surrounding the Adarsh housing society in Mumbai. Various official committees, departments, and law enforcement organizations have begun looking in to all these issues. Cases are being heard even at the Supreme Court. But very few Indians believe that anything substantive will come out of all these procedures. At the same time, unfortunately, influential sections of Indians believe that corruption is a consequence of moral failure, rather than inevitable outcome of the rent seeking regulatory and legal regime that have been established with the design to extort, behind the facade of public welfare.<br />
<br />
Over the past six decades, Indians have heard about many financial irregularities in the government, and many people have resigned. Yet, hardly anyone has ever been convicted much less imprisoned for these alleged misdeeds. The current set of corruption charges has once again highlighted the systemic nature of the problem afflicting India. <br />
<br />
The Adarsh housing society was formed with a few members in the mid-1990s, but it was only in 1999 that real action started. While Indian soldiers valiantly fought to push back the intrusion by Pakistani forces in to the Kargil hills in Kashmir region, a group of officials, military and civil, were strategizing to lay their hands on a piece of prime real estate in downtown Mumbai. <br />
<br />
The society claimed to help provide low cost housing to the widows and soldiers who had sacrificed so much in the Himalayan hills of Kargil. For this noble effort, they received 3800 square metres of land at 15% the market price, for a six-storey block, very close to a navy establishment. <br />
<br />
Neither the state government nor the defence ministry was sure about the ownership of the plot. Not unusual, since in most of India, land settlement has not been undertaken since the departure of the British. The state of land records are pathetic, and so very convenient to manipulate. Across the country, hardly any land transaction, particularly in urban India, takes place completely legally. In major cities like Delhi and Mumbai, it is believed that typically 60% of the payment is made in cash for high end properties. <br />
<br />
Today, Adarsh housing society is a 31-storey tower, with 103 apartments, for which owners have paid between US $ 140,000 and 180,000 for the 625 to 1000 sq feet of carpet area. But market rates for these apartments are believed to be over 10 times that. Hardly, anyone of the members seems to have fought in Kargil, and in addition to defence officials, the society includes relatives of senior bureaucrats and politicians as well. So egalitarian has been the operation, that rich businessman and their chauffeurs have been given a roof in the same tower. People with monthly salary of US $ 250, seem to have got generous loans of US $ 150,000 from their companies. <br />
<br />
According to news reports, the modus operandi of the promoters of the housing society was to simply offer an apartment to any bureaucrats or politicians who either helped in securing various permissions, or turned a blind eye to the various regulatory violations. <br />
<br />
The scandal had been brewing for the past two years, but it really hit the headlines in the past couple of months. Today, every department of the state and central governments, from defence and environment ministries to land and revenue, are competing with each others to point out the various violations by the society. Yet, the same departments had by their acts of omission and commission had allowed the tower to come up in the first place. <br />
<br />
In Mumbai, over 8.6 million live in slums, out of 18-20 million people in the city. Yet, Mumbai regularly finds itself among those with the highest real estate prices in the world. Here, land is almost completely controlled by the political mafia. No surprise that traditionally, the urban development ministry in the state always remains with the chief minister. Successive chief ministers of different political hues have had no reason to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs. <br />
<br />
For instance, a former Chief Minister had secured a prime land at a fraction of the price, in the city of Pune, for his educational trust. Across India, massive land grab under diverse welfare initiatives are rampant, with the powerful getting access to public property at notional prices.<br />
<br />
Resignation of the political leaders will not help resolve the regulatory mess, but may only detract attention from the real source of the problem. <br />
<br />
It is time to realize that the legal and regulatory framework in India, particularly that surrounding land, has been tailor made to facilitate the wheeling and dealing of the powerful and privileged class, all in the name of protecting the poor, and providing them affordable housing. While yet another official panel has just found that over 93 million Indians live in slums today, an increase of 18 million from 2001.<br />
<br />
India’s poverty can be traced to this single most important factor – poor land records, and lack of respect for private property rights. Thus greatly limiting the capitalization potential of assets for the vast majority of Indians. This is coupled with arbitrary regulatory regimes, which instead of facilitating smooth transactions among people, invite powerful middlemen to extract their pound of flesh. <br />
<br />
President Obama may have pleased India’s political leaders, by acknowledging India’s rise, but ordinary Indians are unlikely to be able to rise as long as they are weighed down by systemic corruption of their regulatory regime. </span></div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-50322927998904751762010-11-03T02:47:00.002+05:302010-11-04T00:11:24.422+05:30Obama calling India: Is anyone listening?<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">President Barack Obama will be coming to India later this week. He is the third US president to visit India in this decade, and the only one to have done it so early in his term. Yet, the visit has not triggered any great popular interest. In my article titled <b>"<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704462704575589572535498394.html">In Bush's footsteps in India</a>"</b> in the <i><b>Walls Street Journal Online,</b></i> published on November 2, 2010, I outline the possible issues on the agenda, and the reason for the lack of expectation from this visit. </span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In a longer version of the article <b>"<a href="http://www.indefenceofliberty.org/story.aspx?id=3906&pubid=3916">Obama calls on India: Is anyone listening?</a>"</b> I contrast the different political contexts between President Obama's visit now, and that of his predecessor President Bush in 2006. I suggest that President Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh shared a political vision for India, and that enabled the two leaders to stake so much political capital on issues such as the civilian nuclear deal that the two signed. In contrast, India does not seem to figure significantly in President's Obama's scheme of things, consequently, neither side is willing to risk precious political capital on any significant issue. Here is an excerpt from this article. </span></span><br />
<blockquote><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In politics timing and popular mood significantly impact policy and colour the perception. President Barak Obama is coming to India this week. But the visit by the leader of the only superpower in the world has not raised much expectation among Indians, this time. The only hope is that there would not be any new flashpoint, given the whole range of issues on which the perceptions between the two governments diverge today. But most importantly, what is missing is a mutually shared vision that looks convincing! </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Let’s look at the two issues which could have transformed the dynamic between the two sides, and taken the relationship to a really new phase. For the first time, the Indian side has agreed to buy fighter aircrafts from the US, worth $11 billion. And for the first time in decades that the US had agreed to sell offensive military equipments to India. Yet, the Indian government is unable to bell the cat, unsure of the political cost. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Likewise, the US administration is keen that the India’s civil nuclear liability law meets the concerns of the private players. This would have taken the hard fought India-US nuclear deal to a culmination. But in the aftermath of the re-ignition of the controversy over the Bhopal gas leak in 1984, the Indian government is unsure whether to risk further political capital at this moment.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The contrast with the 2006, visit by George W Bush could not be starker. Bush and Manmohan Singh had staked huge political capital on the India-US nuclear deal. Bush was already becoming unpopular at home because of the direction of the war in Iraq, and there were high decibel protests in India too. Manmohan Singh risked the survival of his government to get the deal signed. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">No US president had done so much to accommodate India. And No Indian prime minister had put so much faith in a single piece of Indo-US policy. To this day many Indian policy wonks wonder why and how such a thing came about. This was one rare instance when two political leaders chose to lead from the front, in the face of major opposition to the deal on both sides. But this spark of leadership was underscored by an unusual level of trust and confidence the two leaders seemed to enjoy. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Obama will address the joint session of Indian Parliament during this visit. In 2006, rising political temperature in India meant that Bush did not get the same honour. Bush spoke to a select audience under shadow of the old fort in Delhi. Most Indian’s who heard that speech felt convinced that George W Bush truly believed in India’s democracy. The shared values of democracy, tolerance and pluralism were not mere clichés, but ideals that Bush and Manmohan Singh really believed in, and were convinced that the other truly shared that belief. In the context of emergence of international terrorism, the political significance of the democracy agenda had been greatly enhanced, and stood in sharp contrast.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Once that kind of relationship is established, almost all political obstacles can be overcome. Manmohan Singh and the Congress party leadership were completely vindicated when the parties that had opposed the new Indo-US camaraderie lost heavily in the 2009 general election. This is why the Indian prime minister had unusually warmly received Bush even after he had demitted office.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Obama had come to the world stage capturing the imagination of the people with his inspiring ‘Yes we can’ theme. Yet, he seems to lack the broad political vision that unites many people for a common purpose. Consequently, Obama, who won promising bipartisanship in domestic affairs, has now polarized the Americans as much as Bush or Bill Clinton. Internationally, Obama’s personal approval rating is still high, but over the past years his charisma has lost a lot of shine. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Obama’s lack of unifying vision could be on display during his maiden trip to India. To his credit, he is the first US leader to come to India so early in his term. If reelected in 2012, Obama may have an opportunity to come to India again, and perhaps he would discover his own vision by then. But this time, it is clear that in two years India and the US have drifted apart on a whole range of issues. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Obama has three key issues on his international agenda – Af-Pak, the Yuan-US dollar exchange rate, and climate change. In none of them the two sides share a common perspective. Either the US administration does not see any significant role for India, as in Af-Pak, or the Indian priorities are different as in climate change. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">When Bill Clinton visited India in 2000, the reception was euphoric. A lot of Indians saw the first visit by an US president after a gap of 20 years, following the economic reforms of the 1990s, as an indication of India’s emergence on the global stage. But in the aftermath of India exploding nuclear devices in 1998, Clinton hardly had anything tangible to offer to India. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In 2006, Bush visited India amidst very polarized conditions, experiencing eulogies from one side of the political spectrum, and extreme political hostility from another. Indian democracy with its attendant debate, dissent and dirt were in full display. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Obama’s lack of broad vision for this trip has meant that he has failed to attract enthusiastic supporters, nor energized the traditional detractors of US policies. For the leader of the oldest and the second largest democracy in the world, the trip to the largest and vibrant democracy, is likely to turn in to a damp squib. </span></span></blockquote><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">You may read the complete article on our website <b><a href="http://www.indefenceofliberty.org/story.aspx?id=3906&pubid=3916">In Defence of Liberty</a>.</b></span></span>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-77820293958842433912010-09-22T00:38:00.001+05:302010-09-22T15:11:53.021+05:30Ayodhya awaits court ruling: Indians’ have already given their verdict on the temple-mosque dispute<div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">This week India would be awaiting the verdict of a court in a title suit. But it is much more than a property dispute. It is a contest between rule of law and politicisation of religion. The dispute has come to symbolise different visions of India. Should Indians today be burdened by the past, or should India move forward, drawing the proper lesson from the past, while preparing for the future.<br />
<br />
In contrast to the frenzy surrounding this dispute twenty years ago, the prevailing disinterest in this issue is a sign of progress, and an illustration of how far the people have moved on.<br />
<br />
A shorter version of this article, <b>"<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704129204575505134072018578.html">India Has Moved on From Its Mosque Controversy</a>"</b>, appeared in <i><b>The Wall Street Journal Asia </b></i>on SEPTEMBER 21, 2010<br />
<br />
At one level, it is a dispute over land, which is quite a common occurrence. After all it is said that 80% of court cases in lower judiciary relate to land. The verdict is coming sixty years after the original suit was filed. But that too is not unusual, given that 30 million cases that are pending at various levels, judicial wheels are known to turn distressingly slowly in India.<br />
<br />
Yet, this no ordinary title suit. This is a debate that has simmered for a few centuries. Over the past two decades, the dispute has come to symbolise two contesting visions of India. Twenty years ago, a political campaign to claim the site sparked off most vicious riots across half the country, that had raised the most serious doubts about the viability of a muti-religious, multi-linguistic, multi-ethnic sub-continent that is India.<br />
<br />
The dispute surrounds a piece of land in the small town of Ayodhya, in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. This town of 150,000 people, share the name of the mythical capital of Lord Rama, the heroic prince in the oldest Indian epic, the Ramayana. Rama is believed to be the incarnation of the Hindu God Vishnu, who was born to end the regime of a demon king.<br />
<br />
In the 16th century, the founder of the Moghul dynasty in India, Emperor Babur had built a mosque in Ayodhya. Some Hindus believe that the Lord Rama was born at the very site on which the Mosque stood. Others believe that a temple existed on the spot where the mosque was built. There had been reports of Hindu - Muslim conflict over this spot in the 18th and 19th centuries.<br />
<br />
Then in 1949, some idols had mysteriously been placed inside the mosque. And that started the present legal dispute over ownership of the property. Petition was filed in the name of the residing deity that the property belonged to Lord Rama. Members of the Muslim community contested the claim, and held that the property was a mosque. The disputed site remained locked up for fifty years.<br />
<br />
In late 1980s, the BJP had mounted a political campaign to build a temple on the disputed site. The campaign brought rich political dividend for this marginal party, which had won just 2 seats in the 1984 general election, The social and political mobilisation on the issue of the Rama temple during this period was among the largest in post-Independent India. In response to the rising sentiments, and accusations of playing vote bank politics with different minority religious groups, the Congress government led by Rajiv Gandhi allowed partial access to Hindus to offer prayers in the hope of diffusing the tension. <br />
<br />
Not unexpectedly, the political machinations only helped further boost the Hindu extremist groups, and contributed in no small way to the rise of the BJP. Their numbers in Lok Sabha jumped to 84 seats in 1989, and became a major political force and staked claim in the name of Hindu cultural nationalism. Ten years later, in 1998, BJP became the single largest party in the Lower House with 182 seats out of 545, and led a coalition government in Delhi for the first time. They repeated their success in the mid-term election of 1999, and lasted the full term till 2004.<br />
<br />
From being dormant, the politicisation of the dispute came to define the political agenda of India in the 1990s. The highlight of the movement was BJP leader, Mr L K Advani’s 6000 km drive across the country, in 1990 to mobilise support in the name of the Lord Rama and the promise of building a temple. Although, the mobilisation did not enable the BJP to come to power in Delhi in the 1991 general election, it did shape the political agenda of the day. The movement climaxed on 6 December 1992, when tens thousands of Hindu zealots gathered near the disputed site, and stormed the old mosque to raze it to the ground. During this period, communal riots repeatedly flared up in different parts of the country that led to about 2000 deaths. <br />
<br />
Twenty years later, the Allahabad High Courts is scheduled to give its verdict on September 24. There is a distinct change in public mood. And the two contesting side seems to have sensed the change. <br />
<br />
In the past few decades, five suits have been filed, four by Hindu organisations, and one by a Muslim organisation. They have all been consolidated in to one, and now judgment day is near. There are three key elements in this suit are,</div><ul style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><li><span style="font-size: small;">did a temple exist at the disputed site, before 1538 </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">did the Muslims perfect their title through adverse possession</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">is the suit filed by one of the Muslim organisations, in 1961, barred by limitation</span></li>
</ul><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">If the court goes to look in to issues surrounding the mysterious appearance of idols inside the mosque in 1949, that could be seen as matters of faith, and pose the biggest challenge to the judges who are best suited to decide on matters of fact. On the other hand, if the court looks at adverse possession, and decides on any pre-existing temple at the site of the mosque, and overrules any time limitation, that could open the Pandora’s box, with the prospect of igniting fresh disputes over many other religious sites. The best course of action for the court would be to limit the scope of their verdict to the legal issues surrounding the title of the land. <br />
<br />
With the prospect of possible communal discord in the aftermath of the verdict, the government is appealing for calm. Even more importantly, all the organisations involved in the legal dispute have been repeatedly affirming that they will abide by the verdict, and adopt constitutional and legal measures in response to the verdict. All sides retain the freedom to appeal the verdict in the Supreme Court. This is a far cry from the belligerent claims by both the sides twenty years ago that matters of faith cannot be subject to judicial rulings. <br />
<br />
What is even more significant is that since 1992-93, there have been many communal flash points in different parts of the country. Yet, hardly any has spread to other areas. Even the most serious communal riots in Gujarat in 2002, which left about 2000 people dead, did not spill beyond the province. The diminishing political returns from religious polarisation are clear, at least for now.<br />
<br />
Even the BJP when in government, had to put the issue of temple on the back burner, for the sake of the coalition partners who supported the government. It is this moderating impact of electoral calculus that is perhaps the most understated strength of Indian democracy. <br />
<br />
Popular mood has shifted away from sectarian issues, and political parties are being forced to recgnise this change. This provides a good opportunity to take a fresh look at the idea of India. <br />
<br />
How has the idea of India or Bharat survived centuries of military conquest and political turmoil? It seems that given the diversity of the population, and a lack of political or religious or social structure and authority that could have a sway across the sub-continent, authority and social customs evolved locally. For instance, every practicing Hindu would have a temple in his or her own home, and had the freedom to choose from the plethora of gods, without much inhibition. Consequently, the invaders and conquerors could defeat the local rulers on the battlefield, or destroy a few places of worship, but not the ideas that prevailed in almost every home. In the civilisational sense, it was quite futile to destroy religious or temporal structures, in an attempt to subjugate the population.<br />
<br />
The rich mythologies and the epics of India provided guidance, without requiring a structure. This best explains the survival of the civilisation that is India over the past two millennia. As the poet Rabindranth Tagore had noted a century ago, invaders rarely went back, instead got absorbed and added to the richness of the mosaic of India. This explains the many instances of different religions living in close proximity with each other. Today, a Muslim flower seller meeting the needs of Hindu devotees, or a Muslim artisan making Hindu deities or Hindus visiting the tomb of a Muslim saints hardly raise any eyebrows.<br />
<br />
In this sense, the fundamental questions that the disputed site in Ayodhya raises are how Indians should look at historical wrongs. Should historical evidence of a temple pre-existing at the disputed site in Ayodhya be found, would it automatically require reestablishment of the temple? Would it then follow that other such religious sites where conquerors had left their imprint be corrected too? Should India attempt to correct these alleged historical wrongs, or should India take a leaf from its own history, and try not to repeat the same mistakes again? <br />
<br />
After all, historical wrongs can never be corrected. Any such efforts inevitably lead to compounding of the wrongs, and perpetuation of misery for ordinary people. If India’s survival as a civilisation did not depend on correcting historical wrongs, now that India is emerging on the international horizon, it has no reason to try and do the impossible. <br />
<br />
Twenty years ago, India was a very different place. It was characterised by scarcities, and government was the principal source of patronage. Today, many Indians have got a glimpse of the possibilities, as the Indian economy and society have opened up. Increasing number of Indians are no longer satisfied being frogs in the well. </div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Like the rest of the country, the people of Ayodhya have moved on, too. The town is said to have 20,000 temples and three mosques. But the young people are flocking to the numerous institutes that have sprung up to teach English, prepare them for various entrance examinations for engineering, management, and medical schools, and to cyber cafes. The ubiquitous cell phone towers dominate the skyline, over temples and mosques. The future beckons the young in Ayodhya, as elsewhere in India. It would be a far greater injustice to try and sacrifice the youth of India to the past in the name of correcting history.</div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">In India, religious freedom matters, not religious structures.</div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-14324422868507956702010-09-08T23:08:00.001+05:302010-09-08T23:09:07.558+05:30Land and mineral rights must belong to private people<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The multi-billion dollar Vedanta bauxite mining project in Orissa has been been mired in controversy. Recently the Ministry of Environment and Forest issued show cause notice to the company for violating various provisions of the Forest Rights Act, and suspended their mining permission. Following is my latest oped on this issue. I look at the debate from the perspective of land and mineral rights, and say that these should belong to the people who live there. This article was published in the <i><b>Wall Street Journal</b></i> under the title, "<b><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704358904575476871686748794.html">Landing India's Next Big Investment</a></b>"</span>, on September 8, 2010.<br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"></span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Endemic poverty amid environmental riches has been the fate of most indigenous tribes in India for generations. There are perhaps 90 million so-called "tribals" in India today, 80% of whom live in the central belt from the states of Orissa in the East to eastern Gujarat in the West, to Madhya Pradesh in the North and Andhra Pradesh in the South. Most of these people live in and around forested areas and are extremely poor. And a recent government decision to block a British company's investment shows why they're likely to stay that way.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Last month the central government suspended London-based Vedanta's permission to mine bauxite in Orissa and issued a "show cause" notice for violation of forest laws. The committee that reviewed the proposed $8 billion project noted that the lifestyle of two tribes—the Dongria Kondh and Kutia Kondh—might be disrupted by interruptions to water supplies and other natural resources. The committee also said the tribes consider the hills sacred, although the exact location of the holy site isn't clear. Vedanta's co-investors withdrew their support for the project on possible human-rights violations.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Never mind that these two tribes consist of 8,000 people, of whom about 20% are believed to have been adversely affected. Or that the mining project lies in the 250-square-kilometer Niyamgiri Hills—of which only seven square kilometers of one hilltop were supposed to be mined. Or that none of the tribes were expected to be displaced.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The problem is not necessarily that tribals might object to this particular mining project. Rather, the trouble is that a lack of clear property rights makes it impossible for anyone to determine whether the tribals truly do object—or whether other special interests are cloaking their own causes in the mantle of tribals' rights. This lack of clarity helps crony capitalists to muscle in with state patronage.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Under colonial rule, the British failed to recognize the land rights of tribal people, denying them the ability to own or sell their property or profit from its resources. Now, some 60 years after independence, tribals still don't legally own their property, either individually or as part of a village's common land holdings. The problem is compounded by the fact that minerals and other underground natural resources by law belong to the state, not to the people who work and live on the land.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">One result is that an investments like Vedanta's become more politicized than they otherwise would. Where mining interests seek ready access to resources, anticorporate activists find an easy target to campaign against. But if individual tribals were granted land ownership rights, they could decide for themselves whether to accept a development project or not. Rather than being forced off their property, thanks to the abuse of eminent domain by the government—as often happens—they would be able to shape their own destiny. By the same token, they would be free to pursue projects they truly wanted. Only then could land owners and capital providers negotiate as equals and explore areas of mutual interest.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Delhi is trying to strike a balance, but as usual the politicians may make matters worse. The government is considering a draft mining law that proposes to give 26% equity of mining projects to local populations. The mining industry is vehemently opposed to this idea, mostly because giving equity may lead to greater uncertainty over management control. In addition, the tribal population would have to share the risks associated with such projects that stem from the wide fluctuations in commodity prices. Most importantly, though, without clear ownership and objective valuation of assets, it would be impossible to determine the value of the local people's equity holdings, leading to possible legal disputes.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Rather than muddy the waters in this way, Delhi would be better served to consider more fundamental changes. It is time to recognize not only individual and community land rights, but the right to the minerals lying under that land too. In addition, there must be a greater recognition of property rights over village common land and the associated forests on which its residents depend.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">There are already precedents for doing this. In the United States, for instance, the right to minerals, including oil and gas, belong to the land owners. These mineral rights can be sold, leased or subdivided, and these mineral rights can also be separated for different minerals found in the same property. An estimated one million landowners in America enjoy these rights.</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">The Dongria Kondh tribe, at the heart of the present controversy in Orissa, is officially classified as "primitive." Its members practice slash-and-burn agriculture and are among the country's poorest citizens. They are too deprived—socially, economically and educationally—to be able to reach the rarefied heights of salaried employment in India; only 10% of India's workforce has that privilege. The current Chief Justice of India once pitied them as "living on grass."</span><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><br style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;" /><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">How ironic, then, that because of the archaic laws of India, promoters of a multibillion-dollar mining project cannot directly negotiate with the people who are on the land. And how tragic that this project's closure is being celebrated by NGO activists as a "victory." It is just the opposite.</span></span>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-38472362119771768282010-08-25T08:40:00.000+05:302010-08-26T08:43:09.613+05:30Save the tiger: Environmental dividend from economic developmentThis is the Chinese year of the tiger and people are interested in saving the tiger from extinction more than ever. Several conferences are being held, and a lot of money is being thrown at saving the tiger, but all this can't work if the Government can't mitigate the conflict between locals and wild animals. The lack of agricultural productivity forces farmers to encroach on the habitat of the tigers. This has to be resolved. China and India can save the tigers by cooperating with each other.<br /><br />A <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703632304575451072978477724.html"><span style="font-weight: bold;">shorter version</span></a> of my article was published in The Wall Street Journal on August 25th.<br /><br />Asia’s economic potential was first demonstrated by the four tiger economies. In recent decade, the focus has shifted to China, India and others. While economies are growing, the real tigers in the wild are living a precarious existence. It is time to reap the environmental dividend from growing prosperity, and save the tiger from extinction.<br /><br />This is the Chinese Year of the Tiger! Undoubtedly, the focus is once again on ways of saving the wild tiger from extinction. This coming weekend the international Tiger Forum will meet in the north-eastern Chinese city of Hunchun. Next month a tiger summit is scheduled in St Petersburg, Russia. Last month 13 nations - Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Thailand, Vietnam, and Russia agreed, at a meeting of the Global Tiger Initiative (GTI), to double the tiger count from about 3200 at present to 7,000 by 2022. Incidentally, the tiger numbers have halved since 2002, when the claim was 7,000. Many today believe that these numbers were grossly inflated due to faulty counting procedures.<br /><br />In 1900, it is believed that there were about 100,000 tigers in the forests of Asia. The number declined to about 40,000 by the 1950. Today, billions of dollars are being spent to save one of the iconic animals in the world, but the future of the tiger continues to be bleak. <br /><br />According to estimates used in draft documents for the St Petersburg Tiger Summit, the economic benefit of ecological services coming from forestry and wildlife estimated in 1997 to be as high as $ 33 trillion annually, and would be much higher today. But another estimate claimed that for the people living in tiger forest in countries like Cambodia, the annual economic benefit per household to be barely $675. The numbers don’t add up!<br /><br />Over the past decade, just the central government in India increased its allocation for Project Tiger, from $ 16 million (Rs 75 crore) in the 9th five year plan, to $ 32 million (Rs 150 crore) in the 10th plan, and $ 128 million (Rs 600 crore) in the current 12th Plan (2007-2012). This is equivalent of about $ 25,000 per tiger per year, for a mere 1200 animals. Compare this with the flagship rural employment programme for the poor that promises about $ 70 per family per year. <br /><br />There seems to be growing gulf between the prescriptions offered by many international, largely western experts, and what domestic policy makers in China, India, and elsewhere confront on the ground. <br /><br />Many of the international experts agree on the need to commit larger sums of money, monitoring of the tigers and their habitat, and almost military style enforcement to keep people and poachers out. <br /><br />But these old prescriptions don’t inspire confidence any more. Indian policy makers are increasingly aware of the rising aspirations of the people, and the demand for land, for agriculture and other developmental purposes. For some others, the biggest threat to tiger comes from the growing intensity of conflict between man and wild animals. They would not like to stake everything on counting tigers. <br /><br />Just in the past two months, two people lost their lives in the vicinity of the famous Ranthambore tiger park. Typical compensation for a life lost is only $2200. This is barely 10% of the annual allocation by the central government for every tiger each year, at present. Just this week, in the same park, a forest ranger who was bravely trying to shepard a tiger that had strayed near a village, armed only with a stick, was mauled. <br /><br />Last year Bangladesh reported 50 deaths from tiger attacks in the Sundarbans area of the Gangetic delta. In India, the annual death toll from wild animal attacks range from 200-300 each year, in addition to injuries, loss of property and crops. Tigers and other wild animals will have a future, only if this conflict can be diffused. Otherwise the beasts will stand no chance against the ire of man. <br /><br />The problem in India, and some other tiger range countries, is not that there are too many people living in close proximity to wildlife. Typically, in such areas agricultural productivity is abysmal, poverty is endemic, and non-farm economic opportunities non-existent. Without resolving this human problem, neither a proliferation of conferences nor throwing cash will help the cause of the tiger. <br /><br />But this need not be the situation. If India doubles its agriculture productivity the demand for agricultural land could fall by almost 40%. If non-farm opportunities are allowed to spread, dependence on subsistence agriculture will decline rapidly. One can already see glimpses of how the natural environment can recharge once the human pressure declines. <br /><br />This is most dramatically visible in China. China’s agricultural productivity is almost double of India’s. The rapid movement of millions of people from rural to urban, and changing economic structure from agriculture to industrial, explains the rise in forest cover. <br /><br />Between 1990 and 2007, according to World Bank database, China’s Per capita GDP increased 8 fold, from $ 314 to $2,566, while for India it just tripled, from $374 to $ 1,046. During this same period, China’s agricultural GDP shrank from 27% to 11%, and forest cover as a share of total area rose from 17% to 22%. It is this 30% increase in forest cover in 17 years, which makes it plausible for China to attempt to rebuild wildlife habitat, and reintroduce animals. In contrast, for India, agricultural GDP declined slowly from 29% to 18%, but forest cover stayed almost the same from 22% to 23%. This indicates that in India, there is a much higher pressure on forest from people who are not able to move beyond rural livelihood, and explains the continuing conflict between man and animal.<br /><br />China and India, are neighbours and competitors in many fields. But in the arena of tiger conservation, they could greatly complement each other. China barely has 45-50 tigers in the wild, mostly near the Russian border in Siberia. India has among the best wildlife experts with capacity to manage tiger habitats. <br /><br />India is already trying to reintroduce tigers in to two tiger parks where all the tigers were lost in recent years. India is also toying with an ambitious effort to reintroduce the Asiatic Cheetah, which had gone extinct in 1947. But today, India’s economic transformation is not yet deep enough to remove the potential for man and animal conflict. But it will happen. Working with the Chinese on tiger conservation would help build up Indian capacity to reap their own environmental dividend. <br /><br />By cooperating with each other today, China and India would not only save the tiger in the wild, but redefine the meaning of “Asian Tigers”. Wildlife and forest are not mere intangible resources, whose values are only determined by creative book-keeping. For instance, in the US, the tangible economic benefit from wildlife and nature tourism, including fishing and hunting, was estimated at $125 billion in 2005. Asia could surely give the US a run for its money, if it manages the environmental resources better. <br /><br />This will require a see change in thinking. Only when people profit from forest and wildlife, will they have any interest in preserving them, and then counting every tiger will become irrelevant. Tiger economies are better equipped to secure the future of the species too!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-11422056932315198132010-08-15T15:15:00.000+05:302010-08-18T11:46:56.430+05:30Commonwealth Games: The Politics of SportsThe excitement of the forthcoming Commonwealth Games is building up in Delhi. The spot light is not on sporting performance, but the construction delays, cost overruns, and allegations of corruption. These are symptoms which have affected many other projects. I believe, the legacy of these games could be that all such projects would be put under similar scrutiny. Below there is a table giving the official break up of expenditure on account of the games, and related development project. A version of this article was published in the <span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold;">Wall Street Journal Online,</span> on 10 Aug 2010, titled "<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704164904575420962151778550.html" style="font-weight: bold;">India's Political Games</a>".<br />
<br />
Indian politicians played games in Parliament, this week, as they debated the chaos surrounding the Commonwealth Games set to open in Delhi, on October 3. While dozens of members of Parliament from many political parties had their say, the chairman of the CWG organizing committee, Mr Suresh Kalmadi, who is also a MP from the ruling Congress party, chose not to speak.<br />
<br />
It is politically correct to believe that sports and politics should not be mixed. But international sporting events are often close to a war, which is politics by another name! Equally politics is a sport too, and can be even more exciting.<br />
<br />
Less than two months before the Commonwealth Games is to open in Delhi, the media is giving live commentary on the state of preparations. Everything that could have gone wrong, seems to have gone wrong – construction delays, poor quality of construction, cost escalation, allegations of corruption and money laundering, inflated prices of items procured, resignation and sacking of senior officials.<br />
<br />
Virtually every agency of the government at the city, state and national levels, and the CWG organizing committee, have been starring in this competition for a share of the wealth, which the games have provided.<br />
<br />
But should anyone be surprised? Political leaders have always used sporting opportunities to try and claim a share of the glory and the pie.<br />
<br />
For instance, the communist countries traditionally invested a lot in sports in order to show its prowess, in an attempt to seek legitimacy for its political system. Following the collapse of the Soviet Empire, China has the baton, and has emerged as a major sporting nation. The Beijing Olympics in 2008, was therefore much more than just the medals won by China.<br />
<br />
Politics in sports has a long history. The 1936 Berlin Olympics was tailor made for Hitler to display his Aryan supremacy. Unfortunately, Jesse Owens punctured that balloon on the field. Even India had a small role, winning the first field hockey gold medal by beating the German team. That was India’s first of the eight Olympic gold medals in hockey.<br />
<br />
But India is not a sporting powerhouse. According to some calculations, India is among the two bottom ranked countries on the ratio of Olympic medals to population size. India’s lone individual Olympic gold was won only in Beijing by Mr Abhinav Bindra in shooting. Bindra hardly owed anything to India’s sports establishment, but to his parents who were capable of meeting the requirements for his talents to blossom.<br />
<br />
Comparisons with the Beijing Olympics and the recent Soccer World cup in South Africa are inevitably being drawn.<br />
<br />
The question is, if Beijing did it, South Africa could do it, can India follow? The answer lies in politics. Both China and South Africa had primarily a political reason for wanting to host a major international sporting event. For the Chinese authorities, the Olympic was an opportunity to announce to the world, and more importantly to its own people, that it can exercise control, yet awe the world. On display was China’s political capacity, in terms of resources, technology and management, to handle the spectacle. Although an area in Beijing was demarcated for officially sanctioned protests, officials did not approve even one of the 77 applications for protest during the games. And it was among the top two in the medals tally.<br />
<br />
For South Africa, following the end of apartheid, and establishment of democratic freedoms, it wanted an event that would provide an opportunity to showcase the new country. South Africa overcame all the doubts and hiccups to present a most fun filled World Cup, probably because most South Africans had apparently accepted the idea. Although, the tickets were priced beyond the reach of most citizens, and the home team was not expected to progress beyond the initial group stage, the fans more than made up for it by staying engaged and supporting a diverse range of teams competing. They created a new icon – the vuvuzela! The noise of the vuvuzelas was drowned only once when the real life icon, Nelson Mandela, made a brief appearance during the closing ceremony.<br />
<br />
Unlike South Africa, organizers of CWG have not really involved the ordinary people, and the public at large seems to have not taken to the idea of the games with any particular enthusiasm. And, unlike China, Indian leaders did not really have any broad political vision for the games.<br />
<br />
India had bid for the CWG in 2003, when the “India Shining” campaign of the BJP led coalition government in Delhi was at its peak in the run up to the national parliament election in 2004. But, the campaign did not inspire the voters, and the electoral mandate passed on to the Congress led coalition. The Congress in its election strategy had focused on the common man, the “aam admi”, in contrast to those who few were perceived to be real beneficiaries of India’s economic changes.<br />
<br />
Consequently, CWG was no longer a political priority. Despite repeated efforts to rope in Mr Rahul Gandhi, the influential Congress general secretary, and son of the party leader, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, he showed little interest. This is in contrast to his father, late Mr Rajiv Gandhi, who began his sudden entry in to public life, by taking over the leadership of the Asian Games in 1982, the last major international sporting event held in India.<br />
<br />
The 1982 Asian Games did not bring any political benefit for the political leaders of the day. Within a year the country was torn by social and political unrest, and bloody insurgency in Punjab and Assam. Then in 1984, the violence in Punjab escalated, and the Prime Minister Mrs Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her Sikh bodyguards.<br />
<br />
The Asian Games quickly faded from memory, and the sporting infrastructure decayed due to neglect. But the political class seems to have taken a vital lesson, political dividend from such international events are quite illusive. This explains the consistently lukewarm political support for these games.<br />
<br />
This lack of political interest in CWG, however, seemed to have created a new incentive for a game of wealth. It would not be far-fetched to suggest that almost every project was initiated late, and deliberately so. After all, unlike traditional infrastructure projects, the CWG projects have a sharp deadline. These delays created an opportunity to justify cost escalation, and lower oversight in the rush to meet the deadline. This is perhaps the best explanation for the unprecedented increase in costs, and the delays.<br />
<br />
Connaught Place is the circular arcade at the heart of Delhi. The construction of a new series of underground walkways was initiated barely six months ago, and now the holes on the roads are being filled up, because of the realization that the project cannot be completed before the games.<br />
<br />
The Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium, the main venue of the games, was built in 1982 for about US$ 2.1 million (Rs 10 crores). Today, the cost of renovation and expansion of the facilities in that stadium alone has been put at US$ 204 million (Rs 961 crores). The cost of organizing the games had been put at US$ 31.9 million (Rs 150 crores) in 2003, the current estimate is over ten fold. At that time, it was said the games village would be converted in to students’ hostel after the event. Now it is being sold as premium apartments to the rich and powerful. The total cost of games including some of the infrastructure in Delhi and the various venues have been officially set at US$ 2.4 billion (Rs 11,494 crores), others have estimated at two or three times as much. However, barely 5.7% of the official expenditure is actually aimed at helping the sports persons who are expected to bring laurels to the country.<br />
<br />
The games have also been criticized on the ground that the money could have been much better spent on more important developmental projects. But only a small fraction of such expenditure actually reaches the targeted beneficiaries. Administrative costs and leakage, consume the bulk of the budget. There is nothing to assume that the games' money could have been well spent elsewhere. This week, the government acknowledged in parliament that of the 578 large infrastructure projects being monitored, 268 are delayed and have had cost overrun to the tune of $ 10.6 billion (Rs 50,000 crores).<br />
<br />
But like everything else, India runs on multiple tracks. While many of the publicly supported sports bodies have systemically failed to produce champions in their disciplines, there are quite a few sports persons who have made their mark on the international arena through their personal dedication and commitment. Ms Saina Nehwal, the current world number two in badminton is the latest star on the horizon, and has just been joined by Ms Tejaswini Sawant who became the first Indian women shooter to win a gold medal at the World Championship in Germany.<br />
<br />
The organizing committee of CWG is struggling to raise funds, and has so far secured sponsorship from 11 companies, of which all but two are public sector enterprises, and the Indian Railway. Yet over the past three years, Indian Premiere League for cricket, a game that is played in barely a dozen countries, has emerged among the most promising sporting ventures in the world. The value of the league, in its third year, is estimated at US$ 4.13 billion (Rs 18,000 crores), which compares with the National Football League in the US, and the English Premiere League football ($14 bn). The IPL reportedly had an income of $450 million in 2009, and that is expected to double in 2010. This contrasts sharply with the struggles of the CWG, which got a loan of $500 million from government, with little prospect of recovery.<br />
<br />
CWG is caught in an unprecedented dilemma. If it is conducted well, there will be little political dividend, and still be accused of wasting money could have been spent elsewhere. If the games go badly, then of course, they will be damned.<br />
<br />
The current public acrimony over CWG is in a way a demonstration of changing political dynamics. The gulf between the abilities of the public and private sector in India are out in the open. The deepening of democracy is bringing the all its public agencies under unprecedented scrutiny, and that is likely to have a much longer lasting impact, than the games. That impact could be more than the medals won in sports, and much more than the apparent gold medal in corruption that many are offering to these games. Asking questions and holding the authorities accountable are the necessary first steps forcing political leaders to explore alternative policy options. That would be a much preferred legacy of the Commonwealth Games for India.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Some tidbits – </span><br />
<ul><li>Over 8000 sports persons and officials from 71 countries are expected to participate. But the hotel industry has not reported any surge in bookings.</li>
<li>The Delhi government is trying to ship the beggars out of the some areas of the city where CWG participants might be visiting. </li>
<li>Over 70 construction workers have died at different CWG sites. The condition of workers is hardly befitting those who are supposed to be building world class facilities for others. </li>
<li>The 1982 organising committee has continued to exist because of a court case involving a dispute over Rs 1.5 crore or about US$ 3 million, and must have spent more money during the past three decades. </li>
<li>In 2009, the IPL is estimated to have had an income of $450 million, which is expected to double in 2010. The CWG is struggling to raise even $250 million</li>
<li>The current economic crisis in Greece was not helped by the extravaganza at the Athens Olympics in 2004. The legacy of these sporting jamborees is not very rosy. </li>
</ul><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 589px;"><col style="width: 106pt;" width="141"></col> <col style="width: 179pt;" width="238"></col> <col style="width: 82pt;" width="109"></col> <col style="width: 76pt;" width="101"></col> <tbody>
<tr height="52" style="height: 39pt;"> <td class="xl35" colspan="4" height="52" style="height: 39pt; width: 443pt;" width="589">Commonwealth Games official expenses, based on the statement by Jaipal Reddy, Minister for Urban Development, Govt of India, in Lok Sabha on Aug 9, 2010</td> </tr>
<tr height="48" style="height: 36pt;"> <td class="xl24" height="48" style="font-weight: bold; height: 36pt; width: 106pt;" width="141">Responsibility</td> <td class="xl25" style="font-weight: bold; width: 179pt;" width="238">Type of Project</td> <td class="xl37" style="font-weight: bold; width: 82pt;" width="109">Expenditure in Rs Crores</td> <td class="xl24" style="font-weight: bold; width: 76pt;" width="101">In US dollar (million)</td> </tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="25" style="font-weight: bold; height: 18.75pt; width: 106pt;" width="141">Government of India</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Sports infrastructure</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="2934" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">2,934</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C3/47)*10000000/1000000" num="624.25531914893611" style="border-top: medium none;">624</td> </tr>
<tr height="28" style="height: 21pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="28" style="height: 21pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Training of sports teams</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">678</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C4/47)*10000000/1000000" num="144.25531914893617" style="border-top: medium none;">144</td> </tr>
<tr height="24" style="height: 18pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="24" style="height: 18pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Loan to CWG organizing committee</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="2394" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">2,394</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C5/47)*10000000/1000000" num="509.36170212765956" style="border-top: medium none;">509</td> </tr>
<tr height="26" style="height: 19.5pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="26" style="height: 19.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">MTNL (telephone and connectivity)</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">182</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C6/47)*10000000/1000000" num="38.723404255319146" style="border-top: medium none;">39</td> </tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Ministry of Urban Development</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">828</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C7/47)*10000000/1000000" num="176.17021276595744" style="border-top: medium none;">176</td> </tr>
<tr height="45" style="height: 33.75pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="45" style="height: 33.75pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Ministry of Information and Broadcasting</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">483</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C8/47)*10000000/1000000" num="102.7659574468085" style="border-top: medium none;">103</td> </tr>
<tr height="30" style="height: 22.5pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="30" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Ministry of Home affairs (security)</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">747</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C9/47)*10000000/1000000" num="158.93617021276597" style="border-top: medium none;">159</td> </tr>
<tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="22" style="height: 16.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Ministry of Health</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">71</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C10/47)*10000000/1000000" num="15.106382978723405" style="border-top: medium none;">15</td> </tr>
<tr height="44" style="height: 33pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="44" style="height: 33pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Archeological Survey of India (monuments)</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">26</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C11/47)*10000000/1000000" num="5.5319148936170217" style="border-top: medium none;">6</td> </tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Government of Delhi</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="2800" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">2,800</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C12/47)*10000000/1000000" num="595.74468085106389" style="border-top: medium none;">596</td> </tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Others</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">351</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C13/47)*10000000/1000000" num="74.680851063829778" style="border-top: medium none;">75</td> </tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl28" style="font-weight: bold; width: 179pt;" width="238">TOTAL</td> <td align="right" class="xl39" fmla="=SUM(C3:C13)" num="11494" style="font-weight: bold; width: 82pt;" width="109">11,494</td> <td align="right" class="xl44" fmla="=(C14/47)*10000000/1000000" num="2445.5319148936173" style="border-top: medium none; font-weight: bold;">2,446</td> </tr>
<tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="22" style="height: 16.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238"><br />
</td> <td class="xl38" style="width: 82pt;" width="109"><br />
</td> <td class="xl43" style="border-top: medium none;"><br />
</td> </tr>
<tr height="47" style="height: 35.25pt;"> <td class="xl29" height="47" style="font-weight: bold; height: 35.25pt; width: 106pt;" width="141">Government of Delhi</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">On Commonwealth Games (stadiums)</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">670</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C16/47)*10000000/1000000" num="142.55319148936169" style="border-top: medium none;">143</td> </tr>
<tr height="29" style="height: 21.75pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="29" style="height: 21.75pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Flyovers and bridges</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="3700" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">3,700</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C17/47)*10000000/1000000" num="787.23404255319156" style="border-top: medium none;">787</td> </tr>
<tr height="26" style="height: 19.5pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="26" style="height: 19.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">ROB, RUB and IG Airport</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">450</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C18/47)*10000000/1000000" num="95.744680851063833" style="border-top: medium none;">96</td> </tr>
<tr height="27" style="height: 20.25pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="27" style="height: 20.25pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">BRTS (dedicated bus corridor)</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">215</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C19/47)*10000000/1000000" num="45.744680851063826" style="border-top: medium none;">46</td> </tr>
<tr height="27" style="height: 20.25pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="27" style="height: 20.25pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">DTC bus fleet</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="1800" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">1,800</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C20/47)*10000000/1000000" num="382.97872340425533" style="border-top: medium none;">383</td> </tr>
<tr height="30" style="height: 22.5pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="30" style="height: 22.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">DTC bus depots</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">900</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C21/47)*10000000/1000000" num="191.48936170212767" style="border-top: medium none;">191</td> </tr>
<tr height="22" style="height: 16.5pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="22" style="height: 16.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Roads</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">650</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C22/47)*10000000/1000000" num="138.29787234042556" style="border-top: medium none;">138</td> </tr>
<tr height="24" style="height: 18pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="24" style="height: 18pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Streetscaping</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">525</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C23/47)*10000000/1000000" num="111.70212765957446" style="border-top: medium none;">112</td> </tr>
<tr height="24" style="height: 18pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="24" style="height: 18pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Road signages</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">150</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C24/47)*10000000/1000000" num="31.914893617021278" style="border-top: medium none;">32</td> </tr>
<tr height="26" style="height: 19.5pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="26" style="height: 19.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Delhi Metro connectivity</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="3000" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">3,000</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C25/47)*10000000/1000000" num="638.29787234042556" style="border-top: medium none;">638</td> </tr>
<tr height="25" style="height: 18.75pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="25" style="height: 18.75pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Power plants</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="2800" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">2,800</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C26/47)*10000000/1000000" num="595.74468085106389" style="border-top: medium none;">596</td> </tr>
<tr height="24" style="height: 18pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="24" style="height: 18pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Water supply</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">400</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C27/47)*10000000/1000000" num="85.106382978723403" style="border-top: medium none;">85</td> </tr>
<tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"> <td class="xl26" height="23" style="height: 17.25pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl27" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Health</td> <td align="right" class="xl38" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">50</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C28/47)*10000000/1000000" num="10.638297872340425" style="border-top: medium none;">11</td> </tr>
<tr height="24" style="height: 18pt;"> <td class="xl30" height="24" style="height: 18pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl31" style="width: 179pt;" width="238">Parking facilities</td> <td align="right" class="xl40" num="" style="width: 82pt;" width="109">400</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C29/47)*10000000/1000000" num="85.106382978723403" style="border-top: medium none;">85</td> </tr>
<tr height="26" style="height: 19.5pt;"> <td class="xl32" height="26" style="height: 19.5pt; width: 106pt;" width="141"><br />
</td> <td class="xl32" style="border-left: medium none; width: 179pt;" width="238">Communication and IT</td> <td align="right" class="xl41" num="" style="border-left: medium none; width: 82pt;" width="109">200</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C30/47)*10000000/1000000" num="42.553191489361701" style="border-top: medium none;">43</td> </tr>
<tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"> <td class="xl33" height="23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 17.25pt;"><br />
</td> <td class="xl32" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; width: 179pt;" width="238">Others</td> <td align="right" class="xl42" num="" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none;">650</td> <td align="right" class="xl43" fmla="=(C31/47)*10000000/1000000" num="138.29787234042556" style="border-top: medium none;">138</td> </tr>
<tr height="23" style="height: 17.25pt;"> <td class="xl33" height="23" style="border-top: medium none; height: 17.25pt;"><br />
</td> <td class="xl34" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; font-weight: bold;">TOTAL</td> <td align="right" class="xl42" fmla="=SUM(C16:C31)" num="16560" style="border-left: medium none; border-top: medium none; font-weight: bold;">16,560</td> <td align="right" class="xl44" fmla="=(C32/47)*10000000/1000000" num="3523.4042553191489" style="border-top: medium none; font-weight: bold;">3,523</td> </tr>
</tbody></table>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-47644145472391692532010-08-11T11:42:00.001+05:302010-08-18T11:45:22.793+05:30Changing climate: Hope for the tiger?<span style="font-size: small;"></span><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Two crouching tigers, some hidden dragons </b></span></div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br />
</span></div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The winds of change between the two giants could impact not only the environment but also politics. In this article published in the special issue (July-August 2010) of the <b>"India China Chronicle",</b> I look at the possible implications of the cooperation between these two countries at the climate conference in Copenhagen, last year. I believe a much bigger opportunity lies in the field of wildlife conservation, particularly in saving the tiger. Following is the text of the article. <br />
<br />
Over the past half century, relations between the two Asian giants have been on a roller coaster ride. In recent years too the two countries have seen sentiments swing wildly on issues ranging from trade to Tibet, coloured periodically by the border issue.</span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
Despite its history of turbulence, the two neighbours together made history at the climate summit in Copenhagen in December 2009, for the first time, the world got a glimpse of the possible consequence when China and India join hands for a common cause. prior to the climate summit, there had been a flurry of high level exchange between the two sides. Both countries came up with evidence to show that carbon intensity of their economies had been falling over the past decades. Both made unilateral announcements to reduce the carbon intensity further over the next decade. They also underscored the need for equitable share of the planet's atmosphere to meet the developmental aspirations of the people, and finally, they proposed to focus on a target of temperature increase in the future, as an alternative to the carbon emission targets which had been the cornerstone of the global climate negotiations. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
While much of this information was trickling out of Delhi and Beijing prior to Copenhagen, there was very little appreciation of the possible implications of all this at the UN climate summit. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
That became clearer in Copenhagen, when it was acknowledged that China and India were in constant touch, developing their negotiating strategies together. Even the ministers on the two sides were meeting almost on a daily basis to ensure that issues were smoothened out. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
Today, it is clear that this joint positioning was the most significant factor in the ability of developing countries to withstand the pressure mounted by the rich countries in Copenhagen. With all the hype that was built up prior to Copenhagen, hardly anyone could have believed that at an international event of this magnitude, at an European capital, would have led to the marginalization of Europe itself. It was the Americans who seem to have realised the tectonic shift that was taking place, and decided to cut the losses by striking a deal on the political statement at the end. European governments had banked on the prospect of an agreement in Copenhagen to infuse new life to the Kyoto protocol, which is to expire in 2012, and so the political statement left them quite shocked. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
China has been a member of various developing country groupings, including the G-20. But hardly ever was China seen taking the lead at international negotiations. At the WTO meetings over the past decade, it was the Brazilian and Indian ministers who typically articulated the developing country perspective. Copenhagen has changed all that. It is likely that the 2009 climate summit will be remembered not so much for its failure to reach an agreement to go beyond Kyoto protocol, but for the impact that China and India, by cooperating with each other, had on the whole process. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
The question that arises: Is this a new phase of India-China cooperation in Copenhagen an exception, or would that become the norm for the future? Will the climate of relationship between the two giant neighbours undergo a fundamental shift in the aftermath of the climate summit? </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
Needless to say the two countries have a wide range of issues confronting each other. They range from economics to environment, from the unresolved border to geo-politics. While political frictions do surface periodically, both the countries seem to have matured enough not to allow the political cloud to affect the growing trade and economic relationship. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
But the wide convergence on different environmental issues facing China and India, could help the two countries to seek common grounds on these areas. Without the historic baggage that affects the political relationship, and the periodic tensions that surface in any trade relationships, the prospect of better relationship on environmental issues because of the convergence of interest seem much brighter. And the cooperation on environmental issues may help improve the level of mutual trust and confidence that could rub off positively on political relationship as well. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
The two countries are already cooperating on conventional and non-conventional sources of energy. Other potential environmental areas where there could be complementary relationship are newer and greener technologies, ship-breaking, recycling of material, etc. But perhaps the highest political capital lies in the possibility cooperation in the area of tiger conservation. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
Tiger is an iconic animal in culture and history of both China and India. There are perhaps two dozen tigers left in the wild in China, mostly along the Siberian border. India currently estimates that about 1400 tigers are roaming in the wild. But globally, tiger is a highly endangered species, and remains so despite many initiatives launched to save it over the past four decades. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
India believes that the demand for tiger parts in traditional Chinese medicine is one of the major sources of threat to tigers in Indian forests. Others think that the pressure of poaching to meet demand in China constitutes a smaller threat, about 25%. The bulk of the threat to tigers in India comes from shrinking forest habitat and the consequent conflict between human and wildlife. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
Tiger conservation is not primarily an issue of law enforcement. India has problem of protecting its tigers, just as China has problem in completely eliminating all trade of tiger parts. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
Recently there were some indications that there is perhaps a shift from this mutual blame game. India recently recognized that protecting tigers is primarily India's responsibility, since the Chinese do not come to India to poach the tigers. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
China, on the other hand, is exploring alternative conservation strategies. following its economic rise, increasing number of people are finding non-rural economic opportunities, as a result, human pressure on forest and wild areas in many parts of China have significantly reduced. In some of these parts, forests have made a dramatic comeback. Some of these old tiger habitats could be ready again to host wildlife. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
China is seriously looking for ways of reintroducing tigers in a controlled manner, in a few areas where tigers once roamed. Hardly any country has as much expertise and experience of managing tiger habitats as India. With recent relocation of tigers into areas from where they had vanished, India is also grappling with similar problems. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
China does not have wild tigers ready for translocation. so they have set up an ambitious effort to try to develop ways of re-wilding tigers that have been born in captivity. This is a very exciting scientific opportunity. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
In both these aspects, preparation of tiger habitat, re-wilding and reintroduction of the tiger, China and India could cooperate, and if successful, it would secure not just the tiger, but generate huge amount of goodwill between the elephant and the dragon! </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
China poses an even more audacious challenge to old conservation mindset. It has almost perfected the art of breeding tigers in captivity. It has more than 5000 tigers in captivity in zoos and other facilities. It could initiate a controlled trade in tiger parts from its captive tigers, and that could lower the incentive to poachers to kill wild tigers. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
Even if India does not wish to join in this effort to help the cause of conservation through commerce, it stands to gain if China is successful in meeting the demand for tiger parts from its stock of captive tigers. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
From the history of world trade, it is clear that smugglers and criminals profit only when there is a restriction on trade, creating an unmet demand for goods and services. Naturally, when trade is outlawed, only outlaws trade! If China were to legalize trade in tiger parts from its breeding facilities, the poachers in India would have little chance of competing with the market forces. Consequently, threat of poaching will almost get eliminated in India. There are many examples from across the world where legal trade has eliminated illegal trade. Over a million crocodiles are harvested each year from farms, yet there is hardly any evidence of any crocodile being killed in India in order to meet the demand from the international fashion industry. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
China and India need to find ways of building on the new climate they sought to create in Copenhagen. Their common position on climate was premised on the belief that economic growth would actually enable the countries to improve energy efficiency, reduce pollution, compete effectively and clean up the environment. And as economies improve, they de-carbonise, as the history of human development illustrates over the past 400 years. </span> <span style="font-size: small;"><br />
<br />
This is the real potential of the changing climate between China and India - harnessing the power of commerce, benefiting people and improving the quality of environment. Today, economic potential of both China and India are now openly acknowledged by all. Now is the time to reap the environmental dividend from economic development </span> </div>Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-39089474875637852092010-08-03T00:38:00.005+05:302010-08-03T00:52:02.308+05:30A time to Party! and part with socialismPolitical ideologies are simple tools by which people decide on the general direction they think society ought to take. In a true democracy, different political ideals have to compete to win the support of the people. The authors of the Indian Constitution had specifically debated and rejected the idea of binding the country to socialism. Yet, the Preamble to the Constitution was amended in 1976, and the election law in 1989, requiring all political parties to affirm to the Constitution, and to socialism. Now, the Supreme Court has acknowledged that there are valid questions on the issue of socialism, though academic, at this point in time. So it is a time to form a Party, and part with socialism. Let us be liberal, and play the tune of freedom!<br /><br />This article of mine, "<a href="http://pragati.nationalinterest.in/2010/08/a-time-to-party/">A time to Party!</a>", was published in <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Pragati,</span> a national interest magazine, in its August 2010 issues.<br /><br />Recently, the Supreme Court dismissed a public interest litigation (PIL) that questioned the validity of the 42nd amendment to the Indian Constitution, which among many other things, added the terms “socialist, secular” to qualify the democratic republic in the Preamble. The amendment dates back to 1976, to the dark days of Emergency. Later, the Representation of the People Act, the law governing political parties and elections, was further amended to include the section 29A, making it mandatory for all political parties in India to affirm to “socialism” if they were to be registered by the Election Commission of India for the purpose of participating in the electoral process<br /><br />The courts always dismiss petitions before them once they pronounce a particular judgment. In this case, however, the Supreme Court acknowledged the “academic” question raised in the petition, but felt that since no political party has so far objected to it, there are perhaps no really aggrieved parties. So it allowed the petitioner to “withdraw” the petition. This withdrawal, however, means that the Court has not ruled against the issue, but considers it to be valid, and has kept it open for a future occasion.<br /><br />The champions of individual freedom in economic and political spheres have long bemoaned the fact that there is no political platform in India that truly reflects their aspirations. No doubt there are liberals of different shades in almost all political parties, but still there are no avowedly liberal political parties.<br /><br />Political parties are plentiful, with around 50 parties represented in the national parliament, and hundreds of parties operating at state and local levels. They represent a diverse range of interests: national, state, regional or local. They claim to represent varied sections of society based on national, ethnic, linguistic, religious, caste, and other identities. Yet, the political ideals on offer are very limited, as all parties are bound by socialism if they are to participate in electoral politics. Incidentally, independent candidates are not required to affirm to socialism, and if elected have only to take oath to uphold the Constitution. One of the reasons for this limited range of political options in the largest and the most vibrant democracy in the world, is the law that requires affirmation to socialism.<br /><br />By legally restricting the political ideology to “socialism”, a couple of serious anomalies have been created. Having introduced “socialism” through the political and constitutional process, it is now being implied that “socialism” cannot be opposed and removed by the very same constitutional process. How can one mount a political campaign calling for the removal of “socialism” in the election law or in the Constitution, after having affirmed to “socialism” as a political ideal?<br />Secondly, what does socialism mean? The Constitution does not define it. The judges hearing the PIL commented that the meaning could vary. But could “socialism” include feudalism, imperialism, fascism, Nazism (national socialism), communism, capitalism, and everything else? If it does have such a wide range of meanings, why have it at all? The judiciary spends a lot of effort on interpreting the law by trying to precisely define the words in it. Justice would come to an end if words were given such variable meanings.<br /><br />The Supreme Court has seen this as an “academic” exercise. But the impact of “socialism” in the Constitution and in the election law raises questions about possible violation of fundamental rights such as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and basic structure doctrine. If democracy is among the sacrosanct elements articulated in the judgments on basic structure, then what good is democracy where political discourse is limited exclusively to one political ideology?<br /><br />Political ideologies matter in shaping public opinion and policies. The stated goal of all political action may be to improve general welfare; but, it is the ideology that provides the vision, and determines the direction and nature of the policies that are designed. Policy decisions whether to nationalise an industry or economic sector, or to privatise it, are shaped much more by political ideologies, than by hard core technical analysis of the merits of the proposed policy measures. In a democracy, people and leaders are not experts in all fields. Political ideologies come as a simple tool by which people decide on the general direction they think society ought to take, and the merits of specific public policies.<br /><br />There is no functioning democracy in the world which restrains the space for peacefully competing political ideologies, except perhaps Germany, where there is some restriction on propagation of Nazi ideology. In every major democracy, the political ideology that is most successful in reflecting the aspirations of the large number of people at any given time, changes the political dynamics during elections. From Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama, from Margaret Thatcher to Tony Blair, the fortunes of political leaders and their parties have swung with the popular perception of the political ideologies of the time. This is what makes democracy such a potent political tool, and ensures the political survival of the society through the various competing ideologies.<br /><br />The Constituent Assembly had deliberated at length on this very question of “socialism” in 1949. Even while acknowledging that there are many provisions in the Constitution that are socialistic in nature, the constitution makers had decided not to tie the hands of the future generations to a particular political idea. No less a person than Dr B R Ambedkar, the chairman of the drafting committee had then said,<br /><blockquote style="font-style: italic;">“What should be the policy of the state, how society should be organised in its social and economic side are matters which must be decided by the people themselves according to time and circumstances. It cannot be laid down in the Constitution itself, because that is destroying democracy altogether …”<br /></blockquote>If democracy is one of the basic features of the Constitution, then restricting it to on political ideology, is clearly a violation of the basic feature doctrine. What would be a democracy, where political parties are not free to fly their particular ideologies, and compete with each other in an attempt to peacefully persuade the citizens to one vision or another?<br /><br />Swatantra Party Maharashtra—the inheritors of the mantle of the Swatantra Party, founded by stalwarts like C Rajagopalachari, Minoo Masani and others in 1959—had written to the Election Commission of India in 1994, noting their opposition to the ideas of socialism, and their inability to affirm to socialist ideals. The Commission had replied by pointing at the amendment to the section 29A of the Representation of the People Act which mandates affirmation to socialism. It thus acknowledged that its role is to implement the law as it stands, not to change or reinterpret it.<br /><br />By acknowledging the “academic” nature of the question in the PIL, the Supreme Court has actually opened a door for the political liberals to come out of the woodwork. Now is the time for the liberals to come together and form a political party, with the sole objective of registering their opposition to the affirmation to socialist ideal. After forming the political party, an application to the Election Commission for registration needs to be filed, even though it is likely to be rejected for not meeting the legal requirement. That would enable the party to go to the Supreme Court and seek redressal of a legitimate and real grievance.<br /><br />Liberals may not yet be a political force to have an electoral impact in India, but by forming a party with this narrow objective, can leave a permanent imprint on the political future of democratic republic of India. This is a not an exclusively liberal cause, though, and it is open to all shades of political opinion. If one ideology enjoys legal sanction today, then tomorrow another could very easily be banned. Putting democracy in a straitjacket will signal the end of political freedom.<br /><br />All are welcome to the Party of the free and the brave! If the political space can be legitimately opened up, then the political agenda would have to change too, and then the electoral space will inevitably follow.Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-28495312121910974412010-07-26T11:20:00.000+05:302010-07-28T11:22:57.909+05:30We're All (Still) Socialists in IndiaThough Indian politicians talk a lot about reform, they are good at spending tax payers money, mostly because they are socialists. Every political party in India should swear allegiance to socialism, according to the 42nd amendment to constitution.There are around 50 parties represented in the parliament, but people of India do not have much of a choice as there is no liberal political party. The petition filed by Sanjiv Agarwal is a case in point. The petition was withdrawn on the grounds that no political part has opposed the insertion of the word 'Socialism".Political parties should take up this cause.My article titled <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703977004575392521877896304.html">"We're All (Still) Socialists in India"</a> was published in The Wall Street Journal on July 26th 2010.<br /><br />India's politicians love to talk about "reform," but if the recent past is any indication, most of them like spending money more. There's the $22 billion annual bill for food and fertilizer subsidies; the billions spent every year on the rural employment guarantee scheme; plentiful government-subsidized loans; and on, and on. The lack of debate over the virtues of these wasteful policies is striking in the world's most vibrant democracy. A big reason is because all Indian politicians are—officially—socialists.<br /><br />That's not a typo. During the height of Indira Gandhi's Emergency Rule in 1976, policy makers passed the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution, which added the words "socialist" and "secular" to the preamble. Then in 1989, the Representation of People Act, the law which governs elections and political parties, was amended to make it mandatory for all political parties seeking registration with the Election Commission to affirm not only the general constitution but also socialism. Since then all political parties have sworn to socialism without any hesitation, without bothering to define what it means.<br /><br />These are more than just semantics. Political parties are plentiful in India, with around 50 parties represented in the national parliament, and hundreds of parties operating at state and local levels. Yet, the political ideals on offer are very limited, and there are no avowedly liberal political parties. The "socialist" pledge, as it turns out, has created a serious legal anomaly and a damaging precedent.<br /><br />Look no further than the recent case of Sanjiv Agarwal, the head of the Good Governance India Foundation in Calcutta. In 2007, Mr. Agarwal, whose nongovernment organization fights for property rights and the rule of law, filed a public-interest petition to the Supreme Court questioning the validity of the 42nd Amendment and the relevant section of the Representation of People Act. The petition argued both provisions violated the basic premise of democracy and political freedom enshrined in the Constitution.<br /><br />Two years later, the Election Commission filed a response and acknowledged that the 1989 law required all parties to affirm their loyalty to socialism. In other words, although the word "socialism" was included in the Constitution through the political and constitutional process, it cannot be opposed and removed by the very same process. The Government of India did not file a reply.<br /><br />When the petition was first heard by the Supreme Court in January 2008, Mr. Agarwal's lawyer pointed out that the anomaly in the election law had been questioned in 1995 by the Swatantra Party Maharashtra, a small political party located in Maharashtra State. Unfortunately the Mumbai High Court still has not heard the petition—even though 15 years have passed since its filing.<br /><br />Mr. Agarwal couldn't legally substantiate the details of the old case, and the judges on the bench observed that while it was a valid point, it was also an "academic" one, since no political party in the country had actually opposed it. So the petition was withdrawn on July 12.<br /><br />The fight isn't over, however. The Supreme Court did not reject the petition outright. Instead, the three-judge bench implied the court would prefer to deal with it when a political party actually is aggrieved, or refused registration because of its refusal to affirm socialist beliefs. The Court's statement also implies there is merit in Mr. Agarwal's arguments.<br /><br />As it should: India's founders debated the question of socialism at length in 1949. The chairman of the constitutional drafting committee, B.R. Ambedkar, said: "What should be the policy of the state, how society should be organized in its social and economic side are matters which must be decided by the people themselves according to time and circumstances. It cannot be laid down in the Constitution itself, because that is destroying democracy altogether."<br /><br />Fixing India's foray into socialism will take time. None of the serious political parties engaged in the electoral fray in the past 20 years has objected to the socialism clause, including nominally conservative parties such as the Bharatiya Janata Party and Shiv Sena. All see great political benefits from large public-spending programs that cement political patronage, even if those policies ultimately create more dependence, higher unemployment and lower future economic growth.<br /><br />Yet India is changing slowly but surely since the "big bang" economic reform of the early 1990s. Today, the economy is poised to enter into a 10% annual GDP growth phase. Foreign multinationals have purchased two of the biggest Indian pharmaceutical companies at record prices, and rather than raising fear, many Indians feel proud that Indian assets could fetch such high values in the global marketplace. The recent auction of third-generation telecommunication spectrum raised a phenomenal $20 billion.<br /><br />All political parties need to take up this cause. If the political space is legitimately opened up, then the political agenda would have to change too—and then the electorate may inevitably follow. India's free-market liberals then might find their rightful place in the political mosaic of the country. Just as India's diversity has sustained her democracy, political diversity will only strengthen the foundation of the republic.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6533591839334339949.post-26523715704243940882010-07-14T15:45:00.003+05:302010-07-14T15:58:12.768+05:30Land Titling: Empowering people, capitalizing assetsAn interesting new law aimed at simplifying land titles and land records, has been proposed by the government. The draft of the <a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://www.dolr.nic.in/landtitlingbill_notice.htm">Land Titling Bill 2010</a>, is now on the website of the Department of Land Resources.<br /><br />In the following article I look at the some of the problems in laws and regulations governing land, and assess the possible impact of the new proposal. I also suggest a few key points that might make this innovative law really transformative one. A version of this article was published in the <span style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">Wall Street Journal </span>Online, under the title "<a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704518904575364482978111078.html">India lands in a mess</a>", on July 13, 2010. Tthe proposed property-rights bill could have far-reaching, positive implications for the economy.<br /><br />Bollywood star Amitabh Bachhan cannot buy a piece of farm land outside Mumbai, the city he made his home 40 years ago, because he has first to prove that he or his family are farmers in his home state of Uttar Pradesh. A businessman ended up paying twice for a piece of land in a Himalayan mountain village in Uttarakhand because he discovered he had originally bought it from someone who didn’t actually own the land. A man in Delhi sold his ancestral property without the consent of other members of the family.<br /><br />These are not isolated instances, but a reflection of the dismal state of land laws and records in India today. As with many other economic dysfunctions here, blame politics: Since independence in 1947, policy makers have mounted a steady assault on property and land rights in the name of equitable distribution and protection of the poor.<br /><br />Today, the labyrinth of bureaucracy makes it hard to realize property values, condemning landowners to poverty and making land artificially scarce. The system also breeds fraud: According to some estimates, 80% of cases in the lower judiciary are related to land disputes and fraud. The mafia, unscrupulous developers and their political patrons dominate the real-estate business.<br /><br />Thankfully, democracy has struck deep roots in India, and citizens are beginning to grasp the symbiotic relationship between democracy and property ownership. Over the past decade, policy makers have been forced to address growing protests against land displacement and alienation. The Forest Rights Act in 2006 attempted to recognize the land rights of one of the most marginalized populations in the country—the 80 to 90 million indigenous tribal people who largely continue to live in the vicinity of forests.<br /><br />While the implementation of this law has yet to gather momentum, another law has recently been proposed by the government to help give the people clearly defined land titles. The Ministry of Rural Development has recently drafted the “Land Titling Bill 2010” to encourage states to adapt similar legislation at the provincial level. The ministry has extended the deadline for public comments to August 31.<br /><br />The draft Bill introduces title guarantee principles practiced in many parts of the world. It tries, for instance, to address the problem of presumed title. Under current law, when land is contested lawyers have to try to dig up the chain of past titles to prove ownership. Between the poor and corrupt land-record system and incredibly slow judicial process, this is a daunting task.<br /><br />The Bill proposes a title guarantee system and indemnification. This means that a land holder granted conclusive title to his property by the State will have an indefeasible right over this property. If anyone contesting this title can come up with evidence to the contrary within a specified timeframe, the latter claimant would be compensated from a title guarantee fund for loss of his title, but the title would not be restored to him. The basic goal is to help clean up the land records and begin with a relatively clean slate.<br /><br />While the goal is very laudable, the devil lies in the detail. The Bill seeks to digitize land records and proposes to complete the process in five years. Many states have already made significant progress in digitizing existing land records. But there is a significant difference between what is actually on the ground today, and what was on the old records. Rather than emphasizing the need to make the records reflect the reality on the ground, the Bill proposes to keep both paper and electronic records. This could easily open the door for further fraud.<br /><br />Also, given there are estimated over 400 million individual properties, it would be impossible to document claims and clean up the records through the administrative machinery alone. It is imperative that people participate in this process actively, not just because of the volume, but also to legitimize the whole process.<br /><br />Then there’s the problem of tackling corruption, which mostly surfaces in transaction costs like stamp duties and registration fees. State governments tend to view these levies as lucrative sources of revenue. But a number of expert committee reports over the past two decades have shown that abolishing these levies would not lead to any revenue loss. Under the current system, apart from rampant under valuation, there is a proliferation of transactions using power of attorneys, and camouflaging the sale as loan, thereby completely bypassing the tax net. Typically, in major cities, price of property is split with about 60% expected to be paid in cash.<br /><br />The Bill also raises the problematic issue of property valuation. But valuation is function of zoning and land-use regulations. The same piece of land will have a very different value when it is classed as agriculture than if it is allowed to be used for housing, industry or other commercial purposes. Farmers in Singur were offered about three times the then prevalent agriculture land price for the land acquired by the West Bengal government for the Tata Motor’s showcase Nano car plant. But with the prospect of land being allowed to be converted from agriculture use, the price of land had shot up ten fold in the vicinity. No wonder that the land owners were agitated at the role of the state government as land broker.<br /><br />According to a national survey in 2006, about 40% of Indian farmers would like to sell their land and move to more lucrative occupations, but can't find buyers because of archaic laws regarding farm land. Likewise, a survey this year found that about 40% of people in urban areas live in slums. Again restricted supply of land has meant that there is no supply of affordable housing and economic avenues for the poor.<br /><br />Constitutionally, land is a state subject, and therefore political leadership is needed to have the states adopt such a progressive law in the provincial legislatures. There are quite a few examples of model laws at the national levels, which have been orphaned by the states, as in case of agriculture reforms.<br /><br />India’s policy makers have clearly identified a critical area for reform. Poverty in India isn’t due to a lack of access to capital, but to people’s inability to realize the value of their most prized asset—land—and to put that money to its optimal use. The beauty of such reforms is that they do not require major financial commitment, only a political realization of the significance of recognizing what is already happening on the ground. The deliberations over the coming months could determine whether this legislation will transform India or merely remain a piece of paper that scores high on intention, but fails in practice.Barun Mitrahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16622261378991052890noreply@blogger.com0